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DeAndre Hopkins Not a Top Ten Fantasy Football Player

By Dan Salem

Jan 3, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) runs with the ball as Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Aaron Colvin (22) defends during the first half at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 3, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) runs with the ball as Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Aaron Colvin (22) defends during the first half at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports /
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DeAndre Hopkins was dubbed a top ten fantasy football player for 2016, but a reality check is in order. The Houston Texans will be good because of defense and the run game, not huge stats by their star wide receiver.

Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.

TODD:

Houston Texan wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is the seventh-best fantasy player in the NFL this season according to ESPN.com’s fantasy football rankings. He is expected to outproduce Dez Bryant and Rob Gronkowski and A.J. Green and his new teammate, Lamar Miller.

But Miller, among other factors, is one of the reasons I am down on Hopkins this season. I don’t think Hopkins is going to have a very good 2016 season.

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For starters, let’s get his past performance out of the way. Yes, he was amazing last season and has gotten better each of his three seasons in the league. That is why he is one of the top 10 players in the sport for fantasy this preseason. But I would be shocked if he actually finished there.

For one, I love Lamar Miller. I thought the Miami Dolphins always underutilized him. He only received 200+ carries one year of his career, 2014, when he also happened to have a career-high 5.1 yards per carry average. This is a bell-cow back who is also a threat in the passing game yet has never been used as such. I think the Texans run a heavy, heavy dose of Miller this season behind Duane Brown and company up front. Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes will also surely get some touches in the offense.

The running game alone won’t siphon away all of Hopkins’ usefulness though. Some of that will also fall on what has become a very interesting and young wide receiving corps. Houston now has Jaelen Strong, Keith Mumphery, Will Fuller and Braxton Miller as wide receivers taken in the past two drafts. The quartet have a combined 28 career receptions. This group is going to garner a ton more targets this season (with the rookies obviously building off of a baseline of zero). I don’t think Hopkins comes anywhere close to his 111 receptions, which ranked third in the NFL last year.

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And then, on top of all that, there is the unknown of new quarterback Brock Osweiler. Sure, Osweiler looked pretty good in limited time in Denver, but that was only in comparison to what Peyton Manning was “throwing” out there. Despite the huge contract, it still remains to be seen if Osweiler can even become an above average NFL QB. Hopkins has gotten used to poor quarterback play in the past, but it certainly doesn’t help matters to have another question mark.

Dec 20, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) signals that he made a first down against Indianapolis Colts cornerback Vontae Davis (21) at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Texans won 16-10. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 20, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) signals that he made a first down against Indianapolis Colts cornerback Vontae Davis (21) at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Texans won 16-10. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports /

DAN:

The Houston Texans will be very good this season and DeAndre Hopkins is going to be a big part of why. Yet I completely agree with your take on his fantasy football stature and place in the 2016 top ten. Hopkins was previously the only play maker in Houston’s offense. The team is now a lot better and I can’t imagine how all of those footballs keep reaching DeAndre’s hands.

To say the Texans’ offense was its weak link is being kind. Houston ranked 18th in the NFL in passing last season and 21st in points scored. The two receivers behind Hopkins on the depth chart each had half the catches and less than half the touchdowns as he did.

Yet the tide has turned and while Hopkins’ value to Houston remains extremely high, his fantasy value does not. Osweiler won in Denver with a team built around defense and ball control. They had excellent receivers, yet the passing game was not the focal point. Now he leads a Texans team whose strength is also defense. By bringing in Lamar Miller, its obvious Houston aims to replicate this formula for success.

What this means for Hopkins is less of his team playing from behind. Less of his team airing it out and less padding on his stat sheet. With the addition of young speed to the receiving core, expect Hopkins to see double teams and be the one player defenses aim to remove from the game.

The other receivers are mostly unproven, so defenses game planning around Hopkins feels obvious. Make sure he doesn’t beat us will be a common thread among opponents. Unfortunately for them, Houston wants to win with a renewed running game and defense.

Must Read: 5 Pressing Questions for Texans

The Texans will still throw the ball, but if Hopkins gets ‘special treatment’ from opposing defenses as expected, then he’ll see his yards and touchdowns fall precipitously. Another season with 190+ targets seems unlikely. Something closer to 125 targets and 70 to 80 receptions feels more like it. Those are solid stats, but nothing near what a top ten fantasy player is expected to receive.

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