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Chicago Bears: Slow your Roll on Running Back Jeremy Langford

By Dan Salem

Dec 27, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive end William Gholston (92) chases Chicago Bears running back Jeremy Langford (33) during the second half of a football game at Raymond James Stadium. The Bears won 26-12. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 27, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive end William Gholston (92) chases Chicago Bears running back Jeremy Langford (33) during the second half of a football game at Raymond James Stadium. The Bears won 26-12. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports /
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The NFL community is ready to anoint Chicago Bears’ running back Jeremy Langford the next big thing, but slow your roll. His numbers were never there, despite a ton of promise for 2016.

Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.

TODD:

As a collective, with us being NFL fans, fantasy football players and perhaps even fans of the Chicago Bears, let us do one thing together: not anoint Jeremy Langford as the next big full-time back in the league. There’s a good chance it doesn’t happen in 2016.

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Chicago handed the figurative keys to its backfield to Langford this offseason when longtime veteran Matt Forte moved on to the New York Jets. The starting running back’s job belongs to the second-year player with no one but career backups competing with him for carries. This is evident in Langford’s draft value for fantasy this season. He is going in third rounds of drafts as a bonafide number-one or two back.

The most obvious reason to curb expectations for Langford both in terms of fantasy and real life is the fact that he wasn’t very good last year! He split carries with Forte, 148 to 218, with the vet holding the edge but not by much. But while Forte, supposedly on the decline heading toward the end of his career, averaged an acceptable 4.1 yards per carry and caught 44 of his 58 targets, Langford was well below average when he saw the field. He averaged just 3.6 per carry and caught barely 52 percent of the passes thrown his way.

Besides the obvious numbers though, the underlying data does him no favors either, according to Pro Football Focus. Some key points of interest from their study of his rookie year:

– Langford forced seven missed tackles, the lowest total of any running back with at least 88 carries on the season.
– Langford ranked dead last among qualified running backs in the league in PFF’s elusiveness rating.
– He ranked dead last with a 1.8 yards-after-contact average.
– He ranked dead last in rate of 15+ yard carries.

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All this despite the Bears having the fourth-best run blocking offensive line in the NFL according to their rankings.

PFF goes deeper into the case against Langford, but the numbers I had before reading their article were enough to give me pause. With it as confirmation, I would not feel good about using him as an every-down back in 2016 whether I was the Bears organization or just a fantasy owner.

Nov 26, 2015; Green Bay, WI, USA; Chicago Bears running back Jeremy Langford (33) carries the ball against the Green Bay Packers during the second half for a NFL game on Thanksgiving at Lambeau Field. The Bears defeat the Packers 17-13. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 26, 2015; Green Bay, WI, USA; Chicago Bears running back Jeremy Langford (33) carries the ball against the Green Bay Packers during the second half for a NFL game on Thanksgiving at Lambeau Field. The Bears defeat the Packers 17-13. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports /

DAN:

The Chicago Bears have the potential to be a real sleeper team in the NFC this season. The NFC North was top heavy last year, but neither Green Bay or Minnesota made major moves to make me think they are unapproachable. This leaves Chicago in a position to make some waves, but they desperately need Langford to step up in order for this to happen. I hesitate to say he’ll do it, because the stats are so strongly against him. But my gut says he does.

Three big things are in Langford’s favor entering the new season. The fact that Chicago’s offensive line was fourth best in run blocking last year is huge for his development. The Bears added even more line depth in the draft, taking guard Cody Whitehair (actual real last name) in the second round. They also grabbed insurance against Langford late in the draft, selecting a rookie running back. But ideally that pushes the incumbent to new heights in his sophomore season. Most players when given more reps in year two, as Langford has been given with the starting job, improve upon their rookie years.

Langford has the strong offensive line as well as the sophomore bump going for him. But the most important factor entering 2016 is his quarterback Jay Cutler. It always seems to be an open question for the Bears, is Cutler the right man for the job? This season is a contract year for Cutler, so expect him to play his absolute best football. Cutler is playing for his next job and last big money contract. Whether or not he stays with the Bears, this is great news for fans and for Langford. Offenses flow as their quarterback does and a dominating Jay Cutler means the ball will find Langford and he’ll have every opportunity to shine.

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The smart move is to slow our collective roll on Jeremy Langford. But I for one will be drafting him in fantasy football. He’s the starter in an excellent situation. Chicago has low expectations that can easily be exceeded. I’ll be rooting for Langford to do just that.

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