The San Diego Chargers are in for a treat, because Melvin Gordon is heading for a monster season. His rookie year was a bit rough, but dig deeper into the numbers and year two looks golden.
Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.
TODD:
Let me be the first (only?) person to say that I believe in San Diego running back Melvin Gordon. The rookie got off to a rough start last season for the Chargers, with rough probably being an understatement, but I feel a rebound coming. Gordon has the pedigree, talent and opportunity to make this happen, as well as a few underlying numbers that play into his favor.
On the surface, last year was a bad one for Gordon. He averaged just 3.5 yards per carry as the lead back in the San Diego offense. However, perhaps the figure wasn’t just Gordon. The Chargers as a team averaged 3.5 yards per carry.
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No one who registered even two carries all season reached 4.0 per tote. There was a problem in front of these backs; it wasn’t just the man with the ball’s fault. According to Football Outsiders, the San Diego offensive line was the second-worst unit in the NFL when blocking for the run. Only the San Francisco 49ers line helped out its backs less.
But although Gordon had that going against him, he still managed okay production in success rate, a statistical representation of a player’s consistency. Despite somehow scoring zero rushing touchdowns (zero!), Gordon actually ranked above Todd Gurley, Jonathan Stewart, Lamar Miller and others in success rate for the year.
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So we have a bad season from Gordon that wasn’t as bad as the baseline numbers may indicate. We also have that talent level and pedigree that made Gordon the No. 15 overall pick in the first place. Remember, this guy was absolutely unstoppable in college for Wisconsin his last two seasons. In a two-year span, he averaged more than 7.5 yards per carry on 549 carries! And he scored 44 total touchdowns in just those two years.
We have seen dominant college backs flame out in the NFL before, but I am not ready to place Gordon in that discussion. Though Danny Woodhead dominated receiving duties for Charger backs and should continue to do so, Gordon even managed to contribute out of the backfield last year. He caught 89 percent of his targets as a rookie and showed a higher level of production in that regard than most assumed he would in a good year.
This guy is not a lost cause; far from it. I expect Gordon to come out and have a very good season in 2016 as San Diego’s go-to back.
DAN:
A rebound seems likely for the San Diego Chargers in 2016. Philip Rivers is too good and the AFC West feels completely up in the air, despite being home to the defending Super Bowl champions. But for Melvin Gordon to excel in 2016 and avoid ‘bust’ status at this early juncture of his career, doesn’t the San Diego offensive line have to play significantly better?
It’s hard to imagine Gordon improving dramatically over his rookie year without the Chargers o-line raising its rank from second worst in the league when blocking for the run.
The good news for Gordon and Chargers fans is that the offensive line can only get better. A repeat performance of last season’s rock bottom is statistically unlikely. San Diego also added two rookies into the mix through the draft, the highest being third round pick Max Tuerk, a center out of USC.
They brought in Ken Whisenhunt as offensive coordinator as well, a solid move to bolster offensive production. Whisenhunt returns to San Diego after a brief stint as head coach of the Titans. Back in 2013 as offensive coordinator for the Chargers, the team finished 5th in the league in total offense. They were 31st the season prior. Last year the Chargers were 31st in rushing offense, so expect another turn around with Whisenhunt back on the sidelines.
A player’s rookie year is often the hardest, with their sophomore season usually offering a major bump in confidence and production. It sets the tone for year three and beyond. Gordon got his feet wet last season in the NFL, but the pressure still remains off this year. Expectations are minimal for the Chargers, as no one is quite sure how good the team can be. Gordon has a major opportunity to capitalize during this revival.
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His 89 percent receiving needs to be exploited even more. Anyone that consistent has to have the football in his hands. Gordon will finally find the endzone as well, likely in week one. The talent is all there, but now the team is rebounding around him. I’m fully with you. Gordon is currently a sleeper, but the NFL will soon be paying attention. He’s due for a big season.