Fantasy Football: Who Goes Number One Overall?
By Dan Salem
There are more options than ever before with the first pick of 2016 Fantasy Football drafts. Who goes number one? Dare we say Gronkowski, or is a running back or QB the smarter decision?
Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.
TODD:
Oh man. The top of the fantasy football draft board in 2016 is a mess. I don’t envy whoever ends up with the first pick in drafts this year. I mostly don’t envy anyone who is forced to play in outdated, boring snake-draft leagues when the option of auctions is available, but even more so, picking first will be a chore this year.
There is essentially an entire first round’s worth of options to take at number one.
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Do you go old-school, classic pick by taking the best running back? That’s all well and good, but who is the best running back? Le’Veon Bell? He is coming off of a major knee injury that sapped him of most of his 2015. When he’s on the field he is probably the most talented and well-rounded back in the sport, but between his first and third years in the league, he has missed almost an entire season’s worth of games.
(Editor’s Note: At the time of this writing, the report from ESPN’s Dan Graziano that Bell is facing a four-game suspension was not released.)
Should Adrian Peterson be number one? His production remains unbelievably steady. Peterson is probably the safest pick to make at the top. Yet he may have the lowest ceiling of any of these guys as he offers nothing in the passing game. So then what about a young guy like Todd Gurley, David Johnson or rookie Ezekiel Elliot?
All three have question marks. Gurley is on a bad offensive team and has yet to play a full season in the league. He was injured to end his college career and to begin his NFL career. Johnson also started his NFL career late because he was just the third or fourth running back on the Arizona depth chart to begin 2015. Won’t he surely have carries vultured by those other options on the Cardinals? And with Elliot, he’s a rookie who’s never played in the pros. I don’t want that as my first overall pick.
But the first pick doesn’t have to be a running back. Maybe this year it’s a wide receiver. After all, the way the league has moved, receivers are putting up far more 1,000-yard seasons. They score less than running backs in the aggregate but may be more reliable individually.
So now if you’re going wide receiver at one, who do you take?
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Antonio Brown is the best guy surely, right? But there are so many super talented dudes right at the top of the league: Odell Beckham, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant. Brown is probably the safest pick, but Beckham seems more intriguing. And, as always with snake drafts, passing on any one of these options means you have no chance of getting them back. It’s an either-or situation.
Maybe neither running back nor wide receiver is the way to go. Maybe Rob Gronkowski should be the first pick in fantasy football. He dominates his position like no other. He is a guaranteed performer at this stage in his career, at least as guaranteed as anyone is in such a dangerous sport. And he puts up numbers as the number-one option on one of the best offenses in the league. I don’t know if I’d have the stones to go through with this, though, and forgo filling both RB and WR until at least the 20th pick (depending on league size of course). Luckily, I play in auction leagues.
DAN:
I’m not a traditionalist ,and I don’t want anything to do with risk when holding the first overall pick. While the top running backs are certainly few and far between, there is no guaranteed stud. Throw in the higher risk of injury, and I’m out on them to start my draft. Todd Gurley is my top back, but I’ll be passing on him. I’ll also be passing on wide receivers. Every year there are multiple surprise stars at receiver and with an emphasis on passing around the league, most teams have two top guys. Don’t waste your top pick on a position full of talent.
This leaves two legitimate options with the first overall pick. Gronkowski is the first option at number one overall. He is far and away better than any other tight end in the league. He racks up more yards and a lot more touchdowns. Even with Brady sidelined to start the year, the Patriots will continue to throw the ball in droves to their Mr. Reliable. Having Gronk on your team is an ace in the hole every single week. He’s good for fifteen to twenty points easily, depending on how you score, and only one or two other tight ends will come anywhere close to his numbers on average. Yet if you are reluctant to pick a tight end first overall for fear of being mocked, there is another highly favorable option.
With the first pick in this year’s fantasy football draft, I will be taking a quarterback. The men under center score the most points on a weekly basis and the drop off from the top five is significant. Don’t tell me you’ll be happy with Tannehill in round three or four. He scores five to ten points less than my pick on average, week to week. Since Tom Brady is out for a month, there are two options here. Its Aaron Rodgers or Cam Newton. But this decision is not a hard one to make, using last season as a guide. Newton was stellar in 2015, but I do not trust his receiving core. I do not completely trust him to maintain such a high level of excellence either. At least not as much as I trust Rodgers to completely bounce back from a down year.
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Aaron Rodgers under-performed in 2015, a rare blip on his superb resume. He will not have such a repeat performance. Rodgers also plays a more favorable schedule than Newton, as his team finished worse than the Panthers last season. Don’t mess around at the top of your draft. Minimize all risk and pick the top player at his position, offering the most consistent points for your fantasy team. Then go select an intriguing running back and receiver. Pass on a quarterback and you’ll likely regret it later.