Jarvis Landry and Doug Baldwin enter the year with identical rankings, so who ya got? The Dolphins’ wide receiver or the man in Seattle? Its Landry all the way. Fantasy Football 2016.
Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.
TODD:
It is fantasy football drafting season! The NFL season begins in less than a month, which means these weeks are the time to draft in fantasy football leagues. Though there is quite a debate at the top of draft boards this year, there are also a ton of intriguing options throughout the middle rounds as well. A number of these decisions will come down to roster alignment and how you choose to build your team. However, the most pressing questions come down to options between players at the same position with similar skill sets, who may even find themselves on the same NFL team. It is hard to split hairs, which brings us to a game of “who’d you rather?”
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Our first contestants are a pair of number-one wide receivers going around the fifth round: Miami’s Jarvis Landry and Seattle’s Doug Baldwin.
The folks at Fantasy Pros have Landry ranked exactly 50th and Baldwin 52nd with nearly identical ranges as well. Landry’s high and low water mark is 21st to 79th from the panel of experts; Baldwin’s is 29th to 79th. Essentially there is no separation between the two players who are expected to dominate their respective team’s targets. But I don’t see it that way. I would much rather have Landry on my team.
Landry, the young receiver entering his third season in the league, is rather underrated in national circles. He has 278 career targets in his two seasons. That’s more than Mike Evans. And Landry has hauled in 69.7 percent of those. Not to pick on Evans, another third-year WR who is going in the second round of most fantasy drafts, but that is a much, much higher catch percentage than Evans has managed. This isn’t to say Landry is better than his Tampa counterpart; it’s just to illustrate that he is on the same level in terms of impact.
The only thing that has held Landry back is nine career touchdown receptions. That isn’t enough to become an elite receiver. The difficulty is that touchdown receptions are historically volatile even out of the best red-zone targets. Just look at Evans yet again for an example of this.
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Which brings us to Baldwin. The veteran receiver is entering his sixth season in the league, yet he has only produced like a top option one time: last season. Baldwin was insane in 2015, but I don’t want to pay for a career year in my draft. It seems implausible that he even comes close to repeating his mark of a league-leading 14 scores. And Baldwin simply doesn’t garner enough action in the Seattle offense to consider him in the fifth round if he isn’t scoring at that pace.
Baldwin may have the higher ceiling because of his big-play ability, but Landry is the better bet to succeed.
DAN:
Would I rather draft Jarvis Landry or Doug Baldwin at wide receiver? Let me first set my personal bias on the table. I absolutely loved Baldwin last season as my third receiver option. He was a surprise fantasy star who, as you noted, is unlikely to repeat such a stellar performance. But he was one of my guys on my fantasy team, which makes me like him a little more. I also dislike the Miami Dolphins. Quite a bit.
Personal bias has no place in fantasy football, unless you enjoy losing. Landry is the better option in this scenario for two very important reasons. The first is each player’s team. The Dolphins underachieved last year, setting them up for a nice step forward in 2016. This benefits Landry. Furthermore, Ryan Tannehill has been ridiculously consistent throughout his career, getting better and better each new season. This too benefits Landry. Conversely, the Seahawks managed to barely hold onto their former dominance last season, making the playoffs but coming up short in the end. Perhaps they bounce back, or perhaps it was a sign of an even steeper decline. Seattle is a team built around defense and the running game, despite Russell Wilson‘s incredible play. Wilson consistently finds new targets and if Jimmy Graham ever gets going, he’ll be the primary receiver. This hurts Baldwin.
The second reason for Landry over Baldwin is probably the most conclusive. Landry saw his targets jump from 112 in his rookie year to 166 last season. He improved across the board. Miami wasn’t very good in 2015 and Landry’s touchdown numbers reflect that. Baldwin is entering his sixth season with the Seahawks and has never seen as many targets as Landry got in his rookie year. It’s true that his targets have increased each of the last three seasons, but his high was 103 last year. Before 2015 Baldwin never scored more than five times in a season, yet last year he found the endzone 14 times. That stinks of a single season accomplishment, and not a trend.
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Ultimately youth wins out, as it usually does in the NFL. Baldwin is a solid late round flyer, unlikely to score another 14 touchdowns. Landry is the best option overall.