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NFL Predictions 2016: AFC East Over/Under Win Totals

By Dan Salem

Dec 27, 2015; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New England Patriots outside linebacker Jamie Collins (91) returns recovered fumble for touchdown during the third quarter at MetLife Stadium. New York Jets defeat the New England Patriots 26-20 in OT. Mandatory Credit: Jim O
Dec 27, 2015; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New England Patriots outside linebacker Jamie Collins (91) returns recovered fumble for touchdown during the third quarter at MetLife Stadium. New York Jets defeat the New England Patriots 26-20 in OT. Mandatory Credit: Jim O /
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The AFC East is looking strong, but who’s truly going to win ten games? The lines have been set and the AFC East over/under win totals are out. Which team’s record looks bogus? NFL Predictions 2016.

Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.

TODD:

Going through the NFL over/under predictions trying to find lines that were out of whack for the 2016 season, we began on the compass rose with the AFC North. Now it’s on to the AFC East.

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Here are our lines according to Bovada:

New England Patriots 10.5
New York Jets 8
Buffalo Bills 8
Miami Dolphins 7

This division is really fascinating. Can I take the over on every single team?! I wouldn’t be surprised if any of these teams finished above .500 this year. In fact, the only thing that would be surprising is if all of them did, just because logistically that seems unlikely.

But with that, I don’t see much separation between New York, Buffalo and Miami. So why are the Dolphins a full game lower on the over/under than the other two? Everyone plays nearly the same schedule except Miami’s extra games this season are against Tennessee and San Diego instead of some combination of KC, Oakland, Jacksonville and Indianapolis. I think that’s a decided advantage for the Phins.

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Not only that, Miami’s toughest game of the year (at New England) is during the Tom Brady suspension. I like this Dolphins team everywhere except defensive back and running back, but it could have a very good offensive line, which will buoy up the latter unit anyway. And a healthy Arian Foster would turn that shortcoming into a strength (though I’m not counting on that). I’m not sure Miami finishes above last place in the East. I’m also not sure they would have to, in order to cover this Over. Only 7 wins is too low for anyone in this division.

Nov 8, 2015; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) throws a pass under pressure by the Buffalo Bills defense during the second half at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills beat the Dolphins 33-17. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 8, 2015; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) throws a pass under pressure by the Buffalo Bills defense during the second half at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills beat the Dolphins 33-17. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports /

DAN:

The AFC East feels really good. We named it the best division in football for this season. It held that honor last year and looks even better top to bottom in 2016. Yet to say that New York, Buffalo and Miami are all on par is foolish. Vegas obviously thinks so too, but having watched this division as close as anyone a season ago, I can tell you that the only true injustice among these lines is the New York Jets at eight wins.

New England is likely to win eleven games once again. Their line is perfect. Buffalo won eight games last season and will finish a game higher or lower in 2016. Another perfect line. Miami’s is probably low, but it really can’t be if we think Buffalo’s is accurate. One of them is finishing with a losing record. The Jets, on the other hand, are nowhere near an average football team. Being fans of the moment, most people think of the Jets as the team that lost its final game of the season to miss the playoffs, then barely re-signed its old quarterback. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

New York blew away expectations last year by winning ten games, mainly because they had fallen so low that people forgot they still had good players. Add in a new system with a dynamic offense and it wasn’t actually a surprise they kept winning last season. Their defense was top five in the league.

The Jets defense is nearly intact from a season ago. What was lost to free agency was gained in the draft and through experience on the field. The offense also looks intact. Outside of a single question at running back, there is little to worry in regards to New York’s ability to play at the same level as a season ago. Matt Forte has yet to practice, but this is just precautionary. He’ll be ready for week one.

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Now I know what you’re thinking, the Jets have a much harder schedule this year. But their over/under line is an insult to the quality of their offensive and defensive units. The competition isn’t better, just flashier. New York should have an over/under of 9.5 wins, maybe 9 if we’re being conservative. Lumping them with Miami and Buffalo is ridiculous.

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