NFL Week 6: Best Picks Against the Spread (ATS)
By Dan Salem
You’d think home teams hold an advantage, but not against the spread. For NFL Week 6 we take as many points as possible. Your best picks against the spread.
A team’s prior week has proven a poor barometer for betting purposes, unless you’re the Minnesota Vikings or New England Patriots. Don’t roll with any other team, unless you’re getting points. Take the points this week. Take the points.
Related Story: Which NFL Teams' Seasons are Already Over?
In NFL Week 6, the Vikings—the only undefeated team remaining—get a well deserved rest. The rest of us have to power through. Onto Week 6 and your best picks against the spread picks.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, discuss the best picks against the spread in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
2016 Record Against the Spread:
Dan Salem: 5-5
Todd Salem: 4-6
Don’t try to be cute. Stay the course and take your points.
Todd Salem’s Week 6 Picks ATS
- Baltimore Ravens +3 at New York Giants
- Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Chicago Bears
So far this season, home teams are 35-40-1 against the spread. With very few exceptions, home-field advantage doesn’t mean anything. Even the so-called tough places to play like Seattle and New Orleans haven’t been worthwhile this year. So why are the books still giving three free points to road teams? This week, I’m grabbing two road teams that are equal or better than the teams they are playing, yet are being given three points on the line.
More from NFL Spin Zone
- Dallas Cowboys made the trade everyone else should have made
- Pittsburgh Steelers rookie sleeper everyone should be talking about
- Anthony Richardson putting jaw-dropping talent on display immediately
- Denver Broncos’ stud wide receiver might be out for a while
- Washington Commanders: Three takeaways from win over Ravens
Both Baltimore and Jacksonville are either just as good or arguably better than their respective Week 6 opponents. In fact, there is a case to be made for the Giants and Bears being the two worst teams in the entire NFC. New York has no offensive fluidity through five weeks as Eli Manning continues to miss wide-open receivers and the running game is in shambles. The defense is good at preventing opponents from executing, but it gets no pressure on quarterbacks at all. Joe Flacco will be able to sit back and launch deep bombs against an injury-riddled secondary.
As for the Bears, Brian Hoyer may be better equipped to run this offense than Jay Cutler, but it isn’t making a difference. Thanks to horrid special teams and below-average offensive and defensive units, the Bears aren’t a field goal better than any other team in the NFL these days.
By the way, the New York Giants and Chicago Bears are a combined 1-3 at home against the spread. The lone victory came when the Bears were home dogs to the Lions in Week 4.
Dan Salem’s Week 6 Picks ATS
- Atlanta Falcons +6 at Seattle Seahawks
- New York Jets +7.5 at Arizona Cardinals
I used to believe in the home team and their inherent motivational advantage, but not this season. Like you I’m taking two teams getting way too many points on the road, in an otherwise even matchup. There is also a stigma that west coast teams struggle when traveling east, but the opposite has never been proven true. Vegas must have forgotten.
The Atlanta Falcons have scored more than 20 points in every game this season, losing only once in Week 1. Over their four-game winning streak, the team has won by at least seven points in each game, even against a top defense like Denver. Facing Seattle will not be an issue for the Falcons’ offense. I’d like Atlanta to win outright if they were playing at home, so getting six points on the road is a gift.
The Seahawks looked formidable against the lowly Jets. Let’s not lump Atlanta into that mess, because this is an excellent football team. No one believes in the Falcons yet, but you should. They won’t be getting points many more times this season.
I noted how the New York Jets are a below average football team right now, but so are the Arizona Cardinals. They survived against the 49ers, but got demolished by good teams before that. Even if Carson Palmer is a lock to play, there is no way that Arizona’s defense can stop the New York offense. Its not very good.
NFL Power Rankings: Tom Brady Shines in Debut
The Jets’ secondary is in shambles, so its likely Arizona puts up points. But this game has shootout written all over it, unless New York locks it down on the defensive line. With the Jets actually getting more than a touchdown, pick them. They are being completely underestimated right now. Arizona deserves no credit to this point in the season. Just because they were supposed to be good, doesn’t actually make them good. See Panthers, Carolina.