NFL Week 16: Best Picks Against the Spread (ATS)

Last week caused fits for many teams, so trust your instincts in NFL Week 16. Expect close games and take points where you can get them in the playoff push.

Week 15 was terrible for a lot of teams on the precipice of playoff spots. It was equally bad for Todd picking games against the spread. Dan, on the other hand, was the beneficiary of a couple of very late comebacks. Hopefully NFL Week 16 will be a rebound, as teams begin to clinch said postseason spots.

NFL Week 16 has some added interest in that it takes place on Christmas weekend, and Christmas day (Sunday) belongs to the NBA. Because of that, the majority of games this weekend are being played on Saturday. I don’t know if this will matter, but it feels noteworthy.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, discuss the best picks against the spread in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

2016 Record Against the Spread:

Dan Salem: 11-18-1
Todd Salem: 14-15-1

Its the playoff push, so make your picks accordingly.

Todd Salem’s Week 16 Best Picks ATS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New Orleans Saints

You do not want to play Tampa Bay when they’re an underdog. You do not want to play the Buccaneers when they’re on the road. You might not want to play the Bucs period, as they have looked very good for close to two months now and covered six-straight spreads. On the year, Tampa is 9-5 ATS, 6-1 in such road games and 8-3 when an underdog.

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New Orleans is nothing better than average at home. The days of the Saints dominating play inside the Superdome are long gone. Despite a positive point differential, the Saints have also sneakily moved into a tie for last place in the division. Their playoffs hopes are over. It was just two weeks ago that Tampa Bay shut down the New Orleans offense. We could see something similar again this week.

Arizona Cardinals +9 at Seattle Seahawks

It was either this game or taking the New York Jets at New England, getting 17 points. Both lines feel inflated as Vegas begs someone to pick against the favorites. I don’t feel as though Seattle can or will be inclined to cover such a large spread after clinching their division title last week. It still has a first-round bye to play for, but it’s not like this team has been blowing people out even at its best.

The last time Arizona played Seattle, the game finished in a 6-6 tie. Seattle has been held below 14 points five times already this season. Meanwhile, Arizona has been an underdog just three times this year as the public still gives it credit for being last year’s team. This week feels like an overcorrection.

Dan Salem’s Week 16 Best Picks ATS

Kansas City Chiefs -4 vs Denver Broncos

The Kansas City Chiefs are 5-2 at home this season and playing like one of the best teams in the conference, despite falling to a streaking Titans team last week. Denver has played well this year, but has been more inconsistent of late losing three of its last four and four of its last six games. I don’t trust Denver’s offense in Kansas City to keep this game as close as the spread.

Divisional games are certainly hard to predict as the playoffs approach, so I’m rolling with the home team in this matchup. I like the Chiefs this season and I like them by at least a touchdown against the Broncos. Give up four points without a second thought.

Detroit Lions +7 at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas has played two really close football games over the past two weeks, winning one and losing another. While Detroit has struggled, they too have played close games. Why then are the Cowboys giving seven points? Because they are at home? Don’t be fooled; take the Lions and a touchdown.

NFL Playoffs 2016: Epic Comebacks Spark Concern for Elite

Whether or not Detroit hangs onto a playoff spot, they are still one of the better teams in the NFC. This is easily a close game, one that the Lions need more than Dallas in terms of the postseason. If they don’t win outright, they’ll cover with the touchdown they’re getting.

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