NFL DFS Picks: Best Lineup for Conference Championships
By Dan Salem
Winning comes down to a few key decisions in the Conference Championships. Which NFL DFS picks and lineup have the best reward? Your best lineup revealed.
In the divisional round lineup number two that we suggested was the easy winner with our NFL DFS picks. Loading up on Patriots was a feasible decision, but it required picking the right Patriots! Dion Lewis and the defense were great; Brady, Bennett, and Blount, not so much. It ended up being the NFC quarterbacks and performers who seemed to do better, perhaps because the opposing defenses were worse.
Related Story: Conference Championships Best Picks Against the Spread
Heading into the conference championships, it certainly looks like the NFC defenses are much worse than their AFC counterparts. Let’s see if that factors into which individual fantasy performers come through.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem discuss NFL Daily Fantasy in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Todd Salem:
Our final four teams present a bevy of tough decisions. Will the NFC defenses get shredded? Can we rely on anyone’s running game to dominate? Below are two different NFL Daily Fantasy lineups. Its your job to pick which one is best.
I will be using Yahoo daily fantasy values because the pricing model coordinates more logically with real auction drafts. We are playing with a $200 budget.
Lineup No. 1
QB – Ben Roethlisberger – $30
RB – Ty Montgomery – $20
RB – Devonta Freeman – $27
WR – Julio Jones – $32
WR – Randall Cobb – $23
WR – Mohamed Sanu – $15
TE – Jared Cook – $15
FLEX – Davante Adams – $24
DEF – Pittsburgh Steelers -$14
Roethlisberger is far and away the cheapest of the starting quarterbacks, yet the Patriots have a pretty bad pass defense. I am banking on him, but then loading up on NFC skill position players. Green Bay versus Atlanta should be a shootout; there is no starter who should be ruled out from having a big game. This lineup includes the top two NFC running backs, the top NFC wide receiver, and Green Bay’s best three receiving options (with Jordy Nelson likely out again).
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Lineup No. 2
QB – Aaron Rodgers – $41
RB – Ty Montgomery – $20
RB – James White – $13
WR – Antonio Brown – $37
WR – Julian Edelman – $24
WR – Taylor Gabriel – $18
TE – Jared Cook – $15
FLEX – Malcolm Mitchell – $12
DEF – New England Patriots – $17
Lineup No. 2 is pass-heavy. Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best quarterback playing the worst opposing defense. Both running backs, Montgomery and White, are assets in the passing game. All five remaining players are elite or high-upside receiving plays. Malcolm Mitchell missed the Divisional Round with an injury, but assuming he’s back healthy, he should take the targets given to Chris Hogan and/or Michael Floyd last week. Taking the Patriots defense on the back end seems like the safest bet, though no defense is a great option this week.
Dan Salem:
This round is tricky because everyone is excellent. I’m not as fond of Pittsburgh’s defense as you are, meaning I prefer Tom Brady out of our four quarterbacks. That being said, I also love the Steelers big play potential, making this an intriguing pick between our two lineups. Ultimately my decision comes down to one main factor, where can I steal points that other players will miss?
With only four defenses and four quarterbacks to choose from, these are the positions that will make or break your team. I look toward defense first and foremost and I love New England’s chances of slowing and/or stopping the Steelers. You removed the two weaker units from the discussion and rightfully so, but I’m not a believer in Pittsburgh’s ability to slow down Brady and the Patriots offense. I’m scared to have them on my fantasy lineup and feel they are most likely to disappoint and lose you points.
Choosing between Big Ben and Rodgers is a similar story, because if anyone can slow down Roethlisberger, its Bill Belichick’s defense. The Steelers could not find the endzone last weekend, a bad sign as they head into Foxborough to face a tougher opponent. Its easy to blow that stat out of proportion, but when the other choice is Aaron Rodgers there is no choice. Rodgers is going to get his against Atlanta, mainly because he represents their primary offensive output. The same can not be said of Pittsburgh.
Where things get messy is with the other guys on each lineup. I love the players on Lineup No. 1 from the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers. All of them will have big games. If the money was right to pair them with Brady and New England’s offense, then I’d be all in. Since its not, I turn to some diversification.
Next: 20 Bold Predictions for AFC, NFC Championships
Lineup No. 2 takes some risks, but they are well worth it. Go for broke, because you won’t win if you pick the same guys as everyone else. I’m taking Lineup No. 2 and hoping a few lesser name guys come through in a big way. I’m also relying on a few heavy hitters to produce as they have been. Its a balanced attack for this week’s NFL DFS picks.