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NFL Over/Unders 2017, Best Picks: NFC South

By Dan Salem

Dec 24, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman (24) and Carolina Panthers outside linebacker Shaq Green-Thompson (54) argue during the first half at Bank of America Stadium. The Falcons defeated the Panthers 33-16. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 24, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman (24) and Carolina Panthers outside linebacker Shaq Green-Thompson (54) argue during the first half at Bank of America Stadium. The Falcons defeated the Panthers 33-16. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports /
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The NFL Over/Under lines are out for 2017, making now the best time to place your bets. The NFC South is once again dead even from top to bottom. You need these picks.

NFL training camps are on the horizon with offseason workouts and minicamps now complete. Teams are preparing for the season more seriously, so now is the time to wildly speculate about, well, just about anything that comes to mind regarding the 2017 season.

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We put a slew of position battles up for debate, including the quarterback battles in Cleveland, Chicago, Denver, and New York. But the 2017 NFL Over/Under lines are out, meaning its time to make your bets with our best picks.

Based on opening Over/Unders (per Westgate Las Vegas, via ESPN), we have an idea of how each division is expected to finish. The oddsmakers aren’t always correct with their assessment, though. There are flaws to exploit in its projections. This is especially true in the NFC South, where once again every team is crowded in the middle.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, discuss the 2017 NFL Over/Under lines in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

NFC South Over/Unders

Atlanta Falcons: 9.5 wins
Carolina Panthers: 9 wins
New Orleans Saints: 8 wins
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8 wins

Verdict

Todd Salem: How is this division so close every single year? We never know who is going to win the NFC South because teams routinely go from worst to first and vice versa. Last year, the Falcons blitzed the competition, with Tampa Bay finishing second and Carolina bringing up the rear. In the season prior, Carolina went 15-1, with Tampa Bay finishing last.

Not even Vegas knows what to think of the South each season, which is why every team is projected for between 9.5 and 8 wins. It makes sense for the house to hedge its figurative bets as people consider hedging their literal ones.

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I am perfectly fine with Atlanta’s line. Tampa Bay also makes sense to me at 8 wins. The other two teams have me questioning how good they will actually be though. Everyone and their cousin expects a Panthers bounce-back in 2017, but will they really bounce all the way back to 10-6? That feels too optimistic for an over/under line. If they were at 7.5 or 8, I’d stay away, but at 9, I feel comfortable grabbing the under. Remember, this division has to play the potentially underrated AFC East and the deep NFC North this year.

That’s why I’m also dubious of New Orleans’ heights. The Saints dealt their top receiver this offseason and didn’t really replace him with anyone. Coby Fleener was a bust last year; Adrian Peterson is a popular pick to bust this year; and we know how bad the defense always is. The secondary is being built up, but it’s not exactly aging properly with the front seven. A line of 8 wins is far too kind to even consider taking the over.

Dan Salem: Because of this division’s history, it makes sense to slap eight wins on each team. Let the people decide who will actually be good. Vegas doesn’t know! But we kind of know, don’t we? Over the last five seasons either Atlanta or Carolina has won this division. The Panthers actually won it three straight years and finished no worse than second up until last season. Conversely, the Buccaneers finished last for five straight years up until last season. Don’t ignore these trends. Be smart with your money.

I like what I’ve seen from Tampa Bay, but I think they are a bad bet. There is nothing to sway me from thinking this team wins six or seven games, versus the nine needed for an over bet. Stay away from the Buccaneers. I am betting the under on New Orleans. They have had such an awful defense in recent memory and Drew Brees is nearing the end of his career. The Saints have finished 7-9 for three-straight years and another one is on the horizon.

Much like the consistency of New Orleans to finish under .500, I trust the Falcons to keep it going and win 10 or more games once again. I like the Atlanta over bet. The team has improved year after year since bottoming out in 2013. Plus they enter this new season with a huge chip on their shoulder after squandering a Super Bowl title.

NFL Over/Under Lines: Best Picks in NFC North

If forced to bet on the Panthers, I would go under nine wins. But I don’t feel good about it. Carolina has won double-digits nearly as often as it’s finished just below .500 over the last five seasons. Winning the division has not equated to actual winning for this team, 2015 aside. I don’t trust them enough to put my money in their hands.

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