Detroit Lions: Reality of Matthew Stafford’s contract negotiations

Detroit Lions training camp is well underway and quarterback Matthew Stafford still finds himself without a long-term contract. So what’s the hold-up?

It appears that initial reports of the Detroit Lions and Matthew Stafford nearing a contract extension were somewhat exaggerated. While there was speculation that the two sides were hoping to have something finalized by the start of training camp, that target date has come and gone and there is no sign of a deal on the horizon.

In fact, news broke this week that in spite of the recent positivity surrounding the negotiations, this situation might not be anywhere near a resolution (per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero):

So clearly, while an ongoing dialogue is a reason for optimism, the fact that this “substantial gap” remains isn’t what Lions fans want to hear as the preseason inches closer and closer. While Pelissero doesn’t get into specifics about what the gap actually entails, it stands to reason that any and all contract disputes come down to one of three things: the length of the deal, the total compensation, and the amount of guaranteed money included in the agreement.

Right away, we can eliminate the length of the deal as a potential hold-up. The team has no issue with committing to Stafford well into the future, and a long-term deal is unquestionably what he is seeking as well. The financial issues, however, are a different matter altogether.

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While the Lions have indicated in the past that they are willing to make Stafford the highest-paid player in the league, it’s unknown by how much they’re willing to clear that bar in order to make it happen. After all, when Derek Carr earned that designation earlier this offseason, the annual average value of his deal of $25 million was a relatively minimal increase over Andrew Luck‘s yearly average of $24,594,000 (per Spotrac).

There’s little doubt that the Lions would have no problem offering Stafford the same approximate $500K raise over Carr’s deal, but it is unknown how much money the former Georgia standout is currently seeking. If he is looking for $27 million or more per year, it stands to reason that the Lions might be considerably less interested in meeting his demands.

While Stafford’s yearly wage might be a point of contention, the amount of guaranteed money he will receive in the deal is likely the largest sticking point in negotiations. Frankly, that’s understandable considering the state of the quarterback market. When looking deeper at the contracts of the aforementioned signal callers, it’s clear that while Carr did leap-frog Luck in terms of annual income, his guarantees weren’t quite as lucrative.

Both men signed five-year extensions but Carr received guarantees of $40 million at signing and $70.2 million in the event of injury, over the course of a $125 million contract. Luck, on the other hand, received guarantees of $44 million at signing and $87 million in the event of injury, over the course of a $122,970,000 agreement (once again, courtesy of Spotrac).

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So while Carr may very well earn more year-over-year, in many ways Luck has a considerably better deal. Carr has the nominal designation of highest-paid player, but Luck has much more security built into his pact, which is particularly notable considering he signed it a year earlier. Carr’s deal is certainly lucrative, but it didn’t reset the market in the manner it was purported to. Stafford and his agents are keenly aware of this situation, and are likely targeting a higher annual average in addition to a greater percentage of guaranteed cash.

It’s easy to see where Stafford is coming from as he has undoubtedly out-performed his contract, having produced one of his best seasons in 2016 and leading the Lions to the playoffs for the third time in his career. As the face of this franchise, he has stepped up in the clutch time and time again, as evidenced by his eight thrilling fourth quarter comebacks (an NFL record) last season.

Stafford is the Lions’ all-time leader in passing yards (30,303), passing touchdowns (187), and quarterback starts (109), and the best player the team has had at the position in decades. Furthermore, his relationship with offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter has been highly productive, and at only 29, Stafford has many years of high end performance ahead of him.

So, the Lions should give him as much as he wants, right?

From the perspective of Lions general manager Bob Quinn, it may not be so simple. Big money deals are often awarded based upon either past performance and success, or the fact that a player is still developing and has yet to meet his ceiling as an NFL pro. Stafford doesn’t exactly fall clearly into either category. Entering his ninth season, he has certainly shown signs of recent improvement, but it would be a considerable stretch to refer to him as a developing player.

In Stafford’s situation, performance is something of an issue as well. It’s not fair to blame a losing record on any single player. Football is a team sport and there are 53 men on an NFL roster. With that said, the fact that Stafford is 0-3 in the post-season and 5-46 against winning teams in his career is likely a major consideration. Lions management might be hesitant to open up the checkbook for a player who hasn’t delivered a playoff win in eight years, regardless of how much of the blame he actually deserves for these failures.

According to Spotrac, the Lions have already paid Stafford $110,778,969 over the course of his NFL career. It stands to reason that his next contract, while not fully guaranteed, could realistically exceed $130 million. There’s no reason to fault the organization for proceeding with caution.

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At the end of the day, none of this is likely to matter much. It’s hard to fathom a situation where negotiations drag deep into the season and become contentious. A deal will likely come together eventually, and the Lions have no intention of letting Stafford get away. While the situation is frustrating for a lot of fans, it’s all a part of the economics of today’s NFL. Quarterbacks get paid, and they get paid a lot. How much the Detroit Lions end up awarding Matthew Stafford, however, appears to be a question that could linger for a while longer.