2018 NFL Draft: Baker Mayfield will be a star as a pro

While some may dismiss Baker Mayfield as a ‘college style’ quarterback, the Oklahoma quarterback will have a very good NFL career.

According to many, Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold lead this year’s crop of college quarterbacks destined to enter the 2018 NFL Draft. People also consider Josh Allen a top name, as well as Mason Rudolph and Lamar Jackson. Baker Mayfield’s name, however, often flies under the radar. Despite avoiding a brunt of hype, expect Mayfield to improve an NFL team.

First and foremost, if you’ve never seen Mayfield play, go watch some of his highlights right now. From only a few minutes of viewing his highlights, it’s clear he’s an exciting, energetic player with a lot of talent.

After an alright freshman year, Mayfield improved significantly in his second year. He upped his touchdowns from 12 to 36, and reduced his interceptions from nine to seven. What’s really crazy is the fact that Mayfield got even better as a junior.

Mayfield finished the year with a 70.9 completion percentage. That number was greater than Darnold’s (67.2), Allen’s (56.0) and Rosen’s (59.3) from 2016. Mayfield’s production in 2016 earned him Heisman finalist honors, as well as Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year.

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The Sooner’s 2017 got off to a hot start. In Oklahoma’s first game of the year, Mayfield only missed on one of his 20 throws. In Oklahoma’s second game of the season, the Sooners faced the No. 2 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. Mayfield shined in that game, throwing for 386 yards and three touchdowns, while leading the Sooners to a 31-16 victory. He played through an injury, and took some big hits during the game.

The real fireworks came after the game. Following OU’s win, Mayfield collected Oklahoma’s flag from the sideline, brought it to midfield, waved it in the air for a few seconds, and then emphatically planted it on Ohio State’s logo. Mayfield being the one punctuating the win by planting the flag in Ohio State’s turf is significant. It shows that this is his team, and that he knows how to lead them.

Despite him apologizing for the action later, the display of swagger is still a breath of fresh air from the often-too homogenized “boring” quarterback routine.

Some people have gone as far as comparing Mayfield to Johnny Manziel. I don’t think those comparisons are justified for a multitude of reasons. Whereas Manziel implemented a very backyard-esque style and relied upon the big-bodied Mike Evans, Mayfield delivers the football with more accuracy. When you watch him play, you see a guy reading the defense and placing the ball exactly where it needs to be. Additionally, having a guy like Evans is a lot better than Mayfield relying on Dede Westbrook last year.

If you go and watch Manziel’s Texas A&M highlights, you’ll see a lot of improvisation, and a lot of running. Mayfield’s game is a lot different, despite minute similarities. When Mayfield is distributing the ball, chances are he’s going to do so accurately. Mayfield has 20 games with a completion percentage over 70 percent, including a four-game stretch in 2016.

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Of course, like Manziel, Mayfield has had issues off the field. Early in 2017, Mayfield was arrested. Police charged Mayfield with disorderly conduct, resisting arrest and fleeing, according to ESPN’s Jake Trotter and the Washington County’s sheriff’s office. While the incident is concerning, I don’t think it’s indicative of Mayfield as a person.

And if you’re in the party that truly believes Mayfield’s off-field incidents are going to hold him back, please consider Cam Newton (stolen laptop), Tom Brady (cheating) and Ben Roethlisberger (sexual assault accusations) haven’t exactly had the most pristine reputations. Yet despite that, those players have etched out fruitful careers featuring a levy of big moments.

Additionally, Mayfield’s current coaches don’t seem to think the 22-year old’s off-field incident truly reflects who he is as a person. After the Oklahoma win over OSU, defensive coordinator had this to say about the quarterback, per ESPN’s Jake Trotter:

"“We all feed off him,” said Oklahoma defensive coordinator Mike Stoops. “Coaches, players. He’s an unbelievable leader, an incredible player. I’ve never seen another guy like him.“I wouldn’t trade him for another guy in America.”"

Furthermore, I think Mayfield returning for his senior year displays his maturity. Mayfield acknowledged he needed to improve, and opted to return, despite the lure of being a talented quarterback in a relatively weak 2017 class of quarterbacks. And despite his off-field incident, Mayfield’s teammates still elected him a captain for the 2017 season.

Another great aspect of Mayfield’s game is his ability to run the ball. He’s not a scrambling quarterback, in the sense that he can actually throw the ball accurately. However, when things break down and nothing is available, Mayfield can make things happen.

In my opinion, Mayfield plays like a more gutsy, bravado-carrying Alex Smith. Like Smith, Mayfield is accurate with the football, and can be very effective in a short-pass system. Also, Smith is perhaps the most underrated quarterback in the NFL in terms of athleticism. He makes things happen with his legs, but isn’t overly reliant on scrambling. But unlike Smith has been throughout his career, Mayfield is more likely to take chances down field.

Honestly, it’s tough to pinpoint an exact comparison for Mayfield.

Mayfield is far from a perfect prospect, mind you. I think the biggest area for improvement is the fact that he too frequently stares down his receiver. Mayfield gets away with that at the collegiate level, but it’ll deter him in the NFL.

While I certainly believe Mayfield will enjoy a very nice college season, I don’t expect him to be drafted highly. I think Mayfield’s size will relegate him to a mid round, a la Russell Wilson. I also don’t think Mayfield is a plug-and-play quarterback. If he goes to a quarterback-needy franchise and is thrust into the starting lineup early, I think he’ll struggle.

Next: 2018 NFL Mock Draft: Defense shakes up early picks

But if he’s able to sit for a year, or even half a year, and learn how an NFL offense functions, I think we could be looking at a future Pro-Bowl player. Scouts talk about having an “it” factor in terms of grading intangibles. Whatever “it” is, Mayfield’s got it in spades.

Expect to hear his name a lot during the rest of the college season, and a lot more in the offseason and during the pre-draft process.

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