The spreads have adjusted, because the top teams finally emerged in the NFL 2017. Proceed with caution. Your best picks against the spread (ATS) for NFL Week 12!
The top teams in the AFC and NFC finally revealed themselves, meaning Vegas has adjusted the spreads accordingly. Don’t let that stop you! Proceed with caution and bet against the proven losers. Can Dan keep his streak alive? Will Todd salvage the season?
NFL Week 12 is a hot bed of huge spreads and lopsided favorites. Home teams are no longer appealing wagers, unless you throw them in a teaser! Your best picks against the spread. Here are the lines for Week 12 via OddsShark.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL 2017 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
NFL 2017 Record ATS
Dan’s record ATS: 11-11
Todd’s record ATS: 8-14
We have seen a clear top tier develop in the NFL this season, though it took quite a while. Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Minnesota are the best of the NFC, with the Rams a notch below. Pittsburgh and New England are the class of the AFC. Because betting against the spread is hard, the Jets and Colts have the same or better ATS records than that elite pair out of the AFC.
Todd Salem’s NFL Week 12 Picks
Todd’s Teaser:
Oakland Raiders +1 (from -5) vs. Denver Broncos
Baltimore Ravens -1 (from -7) vs. Houston Texans
The AFC West is collapsing all around the Chargers. Both Oakland and Denver are part of that. The Raiders have lost six of eight. The Broncos, six straight. Oakland is weak at home, but Denver is winless on the road. The Raiders are tied for 26th with a 3-6-1 record ATS. The Broncos are 30th. Oakland is bad, and the Broncos are consistently slightly worse. On top of that, the latter is giving Paxton Lynch his first start of the season. I don’t like the Raiders, but I like them better than Denver.
The Ravens are 5-5 and don’t have an elite win banked yet this season. However, they also have two shutouts in their last three games and feel like the favorites to make the postseason because of how the wildcard is shaking out in the AFC. This won’t count as an elite win either, but Baltimore doesn’t care about that.
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Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens Under 38
I’m doubling up on the Monday night game by taking the under. Houston is coming off its best non-Deshaun Watson game of the season, but it also just lost D’Onta Foreman for the season. I’m not buying this offensive resurgence, especially against what now grades out as the very best defense in the NFL. The Ravens have hopped Jacksonville in DVOA for best defense in the league. It also helps this wager that the Ravens themselves have a terrible offense. Under 38 is one of the lowest over/unders of the week, but it makes sense and still won’t get there.
Dan Salem’s NFL Week 12 Picks
Dan’s Teaser:
Miami Dolphins +22.5 (from +16.5) at New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks -0.5 (from -6.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Normally I would avoid doubling down on two road teams, but sometimes its too good to pass up in a teaser. The Patriots are far and away better than Miami, yet the Dolphins have a propensity for scoring late in a game and making the final score closer than the actual game ever was. Playing on the road will be tough, but in my teaser we’re getting over three touchdowns with Miami. New England wins, but not by more than 21 points.
Seattle became a great pick on the road in San Francisco by only giving up a half point. The Seahawks desperately need this win to stay in the playoff race, and want to bounce back after a near miss last week. The 49ers played them awful close in the first meeting, but Seattle has found itself and is moving on offense much better than earlier in the year. I still expect a close game, but a Seahawks victory.
Fantasy Football: Start or Sit in NFL Week 12
Cincinnati Bengals -8 vs. Cleveland Browns
Its getting harder to pick games ATS now that we are late in the season, but Cincinnati plays at home against the hopeless Browns. If Cleveland had some continuity to speak of on offense, maybe they would keep up with Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. The Browns do not and will lose by double digits for their eleventh straight defeat. Feel comfortable giving up eight points. There’s no reason to expect a competitive game here.