NFL 2018: Best bet to win AFC East is not New England Patriots

We all know the New England Patriots likely win the AFC East in the NFL 2018 season, but they are not the best bet to win the division. Their odds are terrible, so which team deserves your money and likely comes in second?

The 2018 NFL season is around the corner. With that come predictions for where teams will finish. Super Bowl odds are obviously the biggest ticket item, but finishes within divisions are worthy of monitoring as well. Let’s continue with the AFC East.

As one would expect, the New England Patriots are heavy favorites to, once again, win this divisional crown. In fact, they are the heaviest favorites to win any division in football. That, too, isn’t unexpected. What is interesting is the race for second place and the actual best bet to make for winner of the AFC East.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the NFL 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

Betting on New England is kind of silly. At -500 or something in that department, too much would need to be wagered for any substantial return. And in that instance, one Tom Brady injury could flush it all down the drain. With similar odds for the remaining teams, your pick for second-best team in the East is probably the smarter wager to win the title as well. Either that or ignore the division entirely.

Working backward, I know the Miami Dolphins are not my pick for second-best. They had, far and away, the worst point differential in the division last season. This was without Ryan Tannehill, but the team’s offense has gotten worse in his absence. Gone are Jarvis Landry and Jay Ajayi. A rookie tight end is arguably the best offensive option on the team. Yikes.

And because of cap casualties, the defense is also worse! It’s plausible that Minkah Fitzpatrick ends up being the best defender in his draft class. But Miami already dumped the best defender on its team in Ndamukong Suh.

Can the Buffalo Bills repeat as second-best in the NFL 2018 season? I’m dubious. Is AJ McCarron better than Tyrod Taylor? I say no. And the team used two first-round picks on project players: Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds. Both could develop into stars, but neither will be anything worthy of playing time in 2018.

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That leaves the New York Jets. New York certainly doesn’t have the full roster to compete with New England, but it may have the defense to do so. The Jets look like the best defense in the division. And if they play to the same level of Miami or Buffalo on offense, shouldn’t that be enough? I like some of the offensive pieces, including the best ’18 draft pick, a veteran passer, and play-makers in the backfield.

For some reason, the AFC East has the worst set of wide receivers in the NFL across all four teams, but that means this shortcoming for the Jets leaves it even with its peers. In fact, New York has some enviable depth here, just no stars.

The Jets are my pick to go from worst to first runner-up. I wouldn’t bet on the Patriots to win this thing, but I couldn’t logically pick anyone else to do so either. Patriots, Jets, Dolphins, Bills, with the closest race being between third and fourth.

Dan Salem:

You read my mind, making this less of a debate and more of a discussion on whether the Patriots finally fall down a peg this season. I believe they do, yet not far enough to relinquish first place in the AFC East. New England is the pick to win the division, yet they are certainly a terrible bet. I’m concerned about their lack of wide receivers, especially with Julian Edelman‘s pending suspension, and unproven depth on defense. I’m not betting money on them, because you won’t win anything. My pick for second place and the best bet in the AFC East is the New York Jets.

New York was very competitive in every game last season and lost most by ten points or less. They gave several wins away in the fourth quarter due to youth and poor decision making. In 2018 the Jets return nearly the same team with some key additions. They did not lose more than one or two players of major significance from a season ago. The competition at wide receiver is fierce and their number one is unknown. Yet New York may have three or four great number two receivers, which is a solid consolation prize. Their running back depth is nice, with only tight end and outside linebacker as real question marks.

Because of Darnold’s inevitable place as starting quarterback, the Jets season may peak at 8-8 in 2018. This is a solid football team and rookie quarterback mistakes are hard to predict. It’s unlikely they top the Patriots, but it’s not inconceivable if everything breaks right. What is a solid bet is New York finishing ahead of both Miami and Buffalo.

The Bills overachieved last year and lost a lot of that talent this offseason. Josh Allen likely gets the reigns of the offense, which scares the crap out of me. Who is he throwing the ball to that we can currently count on? Last year felt like a Rex Ryan holdover season, with that extra success coming on the heels of his departure. Now we get a completely new team in Buffalo, devoid of the old identity. There’s a scenario in which the Bills win seven or eight games, but it’s also conceivable that they muster only four or five wins and end with another high draft pick. I still like them more than Miami.

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Perhaps Tannehill returns to be just as good as he was before, but he never wowed me in the past. He did a nice job of leading Miami’s offense, yet now he has less proven talent to work with. I was shocked that the Dolphins did not draft a quarterback, so they must believe he can get it done. This puts a ton of pressure on Tannehill and on the new look defense. Miami needs its defense to control games, something it’s struggled to do for several seasons. Until I see it, I don’t believe it. This feels like a five win team preparing to rebuild. With Brady still leading the Patriots, there’s nothing wrong with that.

My finish for the AFC East is as follows: Patriots, Jets, Bill and Dolphins. The best bet is in New York, no matter how unlikely it may seem.

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