NFL 2018 Predictions: AFC’s best team no longer the Patriots
By Dan Salem
It hasn’t happened in five years, but the AFC’s best team is no longer the New England Patriots. Which AFC team will top them during the NFL 2018 season? We debate.
After running through each division, let’s take a step back and look at the conferences at-large. Who is the best team in the AFC for the NFL 2018 season? Is the answer once again the New England Patriots? Can move on to other business?
The answer is no, because New England’s competition is fierce. Someone else will be the best in the AFC this season, but agreeing on which team may be impossible.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the NFL 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Todd Salem:
This year appears, to me, like it will see a bunching of teams around the level of “pretty good” in the AFC. As I outlined in our AFC North preview, I expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to come down a little from their 13 wins but like Baltimore to improve. Those are two potential double-digit win clubs.
Another two reside in the South with Jacksonville and Houston. I think the Jaguars are the safest bet in the division to win 10, but the Texans have the highest ceiling. That brings our total to four teams competing for 10+ wins and the playoffs.
The West has probably three or maybe all four teams in this boat. I liked the Denver Broncos as the best bet to win the division because of their long odds, but any of Kansas City, Oakland, or Los Angeles could easily take it. It should certainly shape up to be the most competitive division in the AFC this season, top to bottom.
Throw in the aforementioned Patriots, and we have somewhere between seven and nine teams vying for 12 wins and a first-round bye in the postseason. Only six will make the playoffs. And only one should be deemed the conference favorite.
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After all that buildup, is it still the Pats? No AFC peer has had a better record than them since 2013, when they went 12-4 and the Broncos went 13-3. The last time New England finished more than one game off the leading pace was 2009. And yet, I don’t love this 2018 roster.
The defense needs work and will be playing without a coordinator. The unit was truly bad last season, ranking 31st in the league in DVOA. Will that improve greatly because the team drafted a nickel corner in the second round? On offense, Julian Edelman is facing a four-game ban, no other receivers move the needle, and Rob Gronkowski seemed ready to retire this offseason. It was also odd to see New England use a first-round pick on a running back. Besides the concerns about positional value, that was already a position of depth on the roster.
The problem is that I don’t know who I’m talking myself into, if not the Patriots. The Texans are the team that sticks out thanks to their supply of blue-chip players. They have multiple guys who could flat-out be the best player in the sport at their respective position. But a lot hinges on health. The Patriots are obviously the safe pick, as they seem to overcome all obstacles to at least win 11 each season. However, if making a wager on the AFC, Houston presents the best pick and highest ceiling in my mind. With just a bit of luck, I could see them finishing as the AFC’s best squad.
Dan Salem:
New England will be very good, but not the best team in the AFC during the NFL 2018 season. Houston is not the answer either, despite some warranted optimism surrounding a full year of Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Watson enters his second season in the NFL. He has never played a full year in the league and is practically a rookie from an experience standpoint. Don’t get me wrong, he was incredible for two months in 2017. But the Texans and Watson must prove they are actually great for a full season before I’m picking them to win anything. How many times must a team be amazing in September and October, only to average out and miss the playoffs? Houston bottomed out minus Watson. They are a hot pick, but not the right one.
The Patriots are going to win 10 games, mainly because their divisional competition does not appear to be much of any. I believe the New York Jets will surprise people this year, but that doesn’t make them better than New England. Even a split with New York gives the Patriots five wins in the division right away. Sorry not sorry, Buffalo and Miami.
But New England lost an excellent running back and tons of talent across its offensive line. The receiving core appears depleted as well. Tom Brady is not a mobile quarterback, so if his line has even the smallest of cracks, that will spell trouble for the Patriots’ offense. Brady is great at finding ways to win and elevating his teammates, so there’s no need to panic. But with a suspect defense, New England will relinquish its number one spot in the AFC.
My remaining picks across the conference include winning seasons for Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Los Angeles and Kansas City. That’s six teams for six playoff spots. Denver and Houston will be right with this group and the Jets will be making chase. That being said, I believe the best team in the AFC will be last season’s runner up in Jacksonville.
The Jaguars built a foundation of success with defense and strong offensive playmakers surrounding a quarterback who no longer makes mistakes. Blake Bortles is an excellent game manager who can make a winning play when needed. Jacksonville has made a ton of solid decisions with its roster of late, so I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt when it comes to Bortles. They believe their team is great and he is a perfect player to lead them.
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Last season was not an anomaly and the Jaguars’ schedule for the NFL 2018 season is rather favorable. Besides games against New England (at home), Philadelphia (at home), Kansas City (away), and Pittsburgh (also at home), the rest of their opponents were a full tier below last season. Houston will be no slouch, but nearly all of the Jaguars tough games are at home. This puts them in prime position to win 12 or 13 games and finish first in the AFC this season.