Fantasy Football 2019: Impact of Miami Dolphins coaching changes

Brian Flores and Chad O’Shea left New England and headed south to join the Miami Dolphins after another Super Bowl Championship season. Will they warm up the fantasy football prospects of the Miami Dolphins?

Fantasy football owners who strive to stay informed create more chances for success. Through a series of articles exploring the impact of new coaching hires, we’ve taken a closer look at the fantasy football futures of these teams:

15. Cleveland Browns, 14. Washington Redskins, 13. Baltimore Ravens, 12. Denver Broncos, 11. Tennessee Titans, 10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Life hasn’t been a beach for Miami Dolphins fans in recent years, and few fantasy football pundits are jumping through hoops with excitement for the franchise this season.

Let’s get a sense for how effective these new coaches might be in terms of turning over the turmoil in the tropics.

9. Miami Dolphins

New Offensive Coordinator: Chad O’Shea

Former New England Patriots defensive coordinator Brian Flores is the new head coach and he is pushing his “TNT (Takes No Talent)” mantra hard in training camp in hopes of changing a culture of losing. Meanwhile, former Pats tight ends coach Chad O’Shea will run the offense.

O’Shea, a 10-year veteran of Bill Belichick’s offensive coaching staff, brings three Super Bowl rings to South Beach. He hopes to mix up an offensive concoction that poses even a portion of the potency of the Foxboro formula.

A large part of this scheme’s success has always been placed on the shoulders of the quarterback, specifically in terms of evaluating pre-snap defensive looks. Unfortunately, neither O’Shea nor Flores could fit Tom Brady in their carry-on luggage when leaving New England.

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Many of Belichick’s coordinators have left New England for green pastures. The New York Post detailed the travels and trials of a long list of NFL head coaches and coordinators who left Belichick’s Patriots, but the tally of those who went on to win a Super Bowl is small:

1. Jim Schwartz, Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator.

That is all.

Brady’s propensity for pre-snap reads is arguably the biggest reason why the Patriots system has continued to produce results in New England like nowhere else. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who stood out during OTAs according to ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio, is the most experienced quarterback on the roster. Unfortunately, he’s not the quarterback of the future for a team who desperately wants both a quarterback and a future.

The Dolphins traded a second round pick to acquire Josh Rosen from the Arizona Cardinals, and the onus is on him to produce in ways that will make the Dolphins view him as their signal-caller for years to come.

Rosen recently rebounded with a great week of camp, according to beat writer Kyle Crabbs, but even if wins the starting job out of camp, he’ll have his work cut out for him behind what was one of the worst pass offensive lines in the NFL last year, according to Pro Football Focus.

Regardless of who starts for the Dolphins, I’m not convinced that the New England scheme is going to translate well to Miami in 2019. Neither signal caller is worth a passing thought in 1-QB fantasy leagues of any size. Outside of the deepest dynasty leagues, owners in 2-QB leagues will likewise be less than thrilled if they find themselves having to choose one or both in the late rounds.

If anyone’s going to benefit from the coaching change in this offense, it’s going to be running back Kenyan Drake, who flashed his high-end ceiling at times last season. Unfortunately for fantasy owners who viewed Drake as a great RB2 target, he’s lost a lot of first-team reps to Kalen Ballage thus far in camp; worse, the team now lists the tandem as co-starters on the official depth chart.

Drake’s fantasy stock has tumbled as of late into the sixth round, while the previously undrafted Ballage now finds himself going in Round 11. I still believe Drake will become the primary back, so he could turn out to be a steal as a sixth rounder, and I’m not crossing him off my draft board.

However, given that offense that O’Shea comes from frequently rotates running backs, the possibility of Drake’s role becoming nothing more than the lead Dolphin in a pod is becoming more likely with each passing day. Fantasy owners who have placed their trust in Drake will have their faith tested until this backfield picture becomes clearer; Ballage appears to be the better value in the meantime, given his comparatively cheap price.

The Dolphins wide receiving corps lacks a true star, but it isn’t completely barren of talent.  Kenny Stills is the lead Dolphin on the wide receiver depth chart, and he’s having some great camp battles against Xavien Howard, as reported by ESPN’s Cameron Wolfe. Inexplicably, Stills is going a round later (15th) than perennial disappointment DeVante Parker (14th) in PPR drafts.

While both are on the late-round radars of many fantasy football owners, an even better sleeper lies under the surface of most draft day cheat sheets. Take a look at these eye-popping statistics from Jody Smith about Albert Wilson:

Curiously, Wilson may not even win the title of “best sleeper on the Miami Dolphins.” That honor goes to Mike Gesicki. As a rookie, the tight end from Penn State posted a catch rate of 68.8%, higher than George Kittle, David Njoku, Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed, Jared Cook, Mark Andrews, finishing just ahead of some guy named Travis Kelce in that metric.

Gesicki should see an uptick in production across the board, and it’s not out of the realm of possibilities for him to develop into a primary target on a team that lacks a true go-to guy. The 6-6, 250-pounder didn’t catch a single touchdown pass last year, but odds are that O’Shea, a former tight ends coach, will properly utilize this athletic beast in the red zone.

The Dolphins have a tall task in front of them in their efforts to change a losing culture. One thing working for them is a relatively weak division. The Patriots are getting older while the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills still have much to prove.

This may result in more positive game scripts for the Dolphins than many of us realize, and a bit less garbage time. Except for the deepest leagues, expect few palatable fantasy football options, but a load of waiver wire wonders to watch as the season kicks off.