The MVP of the NFL has gone to a quarterback every single season since 2013. It's become a quarterback-driven league and 'best QB' award, for the most part. For some NFL fans, that isn't anything to get excited about.
But for others, it's great to see quarterbacks winning the award, as they generally are the most valuable players on the field in most seasons. With how this trend has continued for over a decade, there really isn't any reason to believe that it won't continue in the 2026 NFL Season.
Here are how the last several MVP awards have looked, for some context:
2019: Lamar Jackson
2020: Aaron Rodgers
2021: Aaron Rodgers
2022: Patrick Mahomes
2023: Lamar Jackson
2024: Josh Allen
2025: Matthew Stafford
Now, let's predict quarterbacks most likely to win their first MVP award in 2026, ranking them from least to most likely.
Predicting QBs most likely to win their first MVP award in the 2026 season
6. Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Drake Maye did just barely lose the MVP award to Matthew Stafford in the 2025 season. Maye was otherworldly efficient and could simply keep that up in 2026. One huge reason that people might be doubting Maye and the New England Patriots is obviously the insanely easy schedule they took advantage of, but the other side of this is the possibility that the Patriots and Maye are 100 percent for real.
Since Maye got so close already, it really would not make sense to not include him on this list. I do personally believe that the franchise is going to regress a bit, but Maye's excellence in 2025 could surely spill over into 2026.
5. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Jared Goff finished fifth in the MVP voting back in 2024, so he has gotten somewhat close. What plays to Goff's advantage is just how easily prolific he seems to be each year. In each of the last four seasons with the Detroit Lions, Goff has at least thrown for 4,438 yards and 29 touchdowns.
His statistics over the last four years are almost too excellent to believe as well:
45-23
18,206 yards
130 touchdowns
39 interceptions
103.4 passer rating
Goff has played out of his mind, and if the Lions defense can improve just a hair, that should be plenty for the team to scrape together a few more wins and finally see Goff emerge as a legitimate MVP candidate in 2026.
He deserves more credit and is among the best at the position.
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