I am not sure many people expected teams like the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears, for example, to win their respective divisions in the 2025 NFL Season, but it happened, and it was quite something.
The 2026 season could also bring more of the same, as it does truly seem like the NFL is getting more and more competitive as the seasons go on. If the same trend from 2025 holds onto 2026, two non-playoff teams from this past season will make the Super Bowl in 2026, as New England and Seattle missed the playoffs in 2024 but made the Super Bowl in 2025.
Let's get more into the 2026 season and look at three, perhaps among more, division winners that must watch their backs.
These division winners may have to watch their backs during the 2026 NFL Season
Chicago Bears (11-6 in 2025)
Simply out of nowhere, to be honest, the Chicago Bears burst onto the scene and won 11 games in the 2025 season, which was enough to win the NFC North with room to spare!
The Bears saw all of Green Bay, Minnesota, and Detroit all win nine games. What is very interesting here is that from 2017-2024, the NFC North winner had no fewer than 12 wins. From 2019-2022, the NFC North winner had exactly 13 wins.
Based on how loaded the division has been in recent years, it simply does not feel likely that the Bears, a team that sported a top offense but very flawed defense, will win the division unless they add another win or two in 2026.
The other three teams are also quite competent, as the Lions won 12 games in 2023 and 15 in 2024, winning the division both years.
Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4 in 2025)
The Jacksonville Jaguars won 13 games in the 2025 season in year one of the Liam Coen era. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence was playing out of his mind the final six games of the season as well, ending the year as one of the MVP candidates.
The Jaguars, however, lost two key pieces in free agency, as Travis Etienne and Devin Lloyd both signed in the NFC South in free agency, and even with those two in the picture, the Jaguars would not have had a better roster than the Houston Texans, who managed to get better this offseason.
General Manager Nick Caserio shored up the offensive line with Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith, added David Montgomery in a trade, and did see his team win 12 games in 2025 despite starting 0-3.
I do have some concerns about CJ Stroud, but this Texans team could have won 13 or 14 games had they started a bit better last year. Houston is loaded and is coming back for that title, the division they won in 2023 and 2024.
Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
Even though the Philadelphia Eagles won 11 games in 2025, it still felt a bit dysfunctional, right? Philly traded AJ Brown this offseason, hired a new offensive coordinator in Sean Mannion, and are still fielding Jalen Hurts at quarterback, who is a very limited passer and not an elevator in that regard.
The Dallas Cowboys also made a lot of great moves this offseason, revamping the defense and bringing in Christian Parker to run that unit. Parker is a Vic Fangio disciple, and with the Cowboys already sporting a top-7 offense, all you really need from the defense is for that unit to be average.
Dallas did win 7 games last year and were still in the race rather late into the season, so this isn't some bottom-feeding team with no chance, and seeing as the Eagles simply cannot find consistency on offense, the Cowboys could dethrone them in the NFC East.
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