Football is not merely about the passing game with wide receivers and tight ends. A good team will balance it with a strong and competent rushing attack, led by a strong running back. Fantasy football is no different in that regard; a competitive team needs some strong runners.
However, average draft position is not the safest metric to select one’s team. With running backs taking up multiple starting spots on a fantasy team, it is important to know which ones are safe.
The previous outlooks for quarterbacks and pass catchers displayed a mixed bag of outcomes. In comparison, running backs look dire with just one season of less than 50% of the top-12 falling off year over year.
There is no true good side for running back changes
There is a tie with the “best” odds of returning to the top tier of running backs (RB1). Those spots are 4 and 8, and they stay put just 40% of the time.
The players at those spots from the last fantasy football season are Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry. These are a pair of guys who are stud running backs. If there is a weakness in either player’s game, it would be pass catching, but that is nitpicking.
One case against Taylor would be if Daniel Jones is less of a dual-threat quarterback; would that make opposing defenses stack the box in anticipation of the run? Potentially. However, there is a lot that needs to be seen with Jones’ health before saying anything with any certainty.
With Henry, there is no real case against him other than the same argument of “he is old” that has been used for years now. The king will decide when he wants to step down from the RB1 ranks.
There are three coin flips to return to the top of the running back mountain next season. Those spots are 1, 2 and 5, each with a 50% rate of change.
The players at those 2025 ending positions are Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson and De’Von Achane. The only real argument against any of them is the injury bug. However, that can go for anyone, really.
Each of these running backs is expected to have a high workload. Although, San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is on the record saying he wants to lower McCaffrey’s touches heading into the 2026 campaign.
If that happens, his health could be preserved, and he could be at a lesser risk of injury. However, the question becomes how much will the 49ers limit his touches, and is McCaffrey at risk of not getting enough of an opportunity to repeat as an RB1?
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