After a dominant 3-0 start, the Buffalo Bills were outclassed against the Baltimore Ravens in week 4. The Bills suffered an embarrassing loss to the Ravens; everything the Bills needed to go right, didn't. And the Ravens used a dominant run game to send the Bills to 3-1. In a game where I predicted that Josh Allen would have to continue to play like an MVP, he couldn't generate consistent offense against a dominant Ravens defense.
On the other side of the ball, the injury-riddled Bills' defense could not control the power-rushing attack of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. Jackson was efficient and effective in the passing game, and Buffalo had no answers in a 35-10 loss in M&T Stadium. The Texans come into Sunday's matchup 3-1 after a sloppy 24-20 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in week 4. The Texans are looking to establish themselves as an elite team in the AFC. A win against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will help them make that case in Stefon Diggs's first game after his messy divorce with Josh Allen and the Bills.
I think James Cook will have to bring balance to the Bills offense - 85+ yards from scrimmage and 1+ TDs
In the Bills' loss against the Ravens, James Cook had a season-low 9 rushing attempts for 39 yards. More concerning for the Bills was Cook's lack of involvement in the passing game as he caught only one pass for nine yards. In contrast, against the Jacksonville Jaguars in week 3, Cook again struggled running the ball with 39 yards; but offensive coordinator Joe Dorsey got Cook involved in the passing game with 4 catches for 48 yards.
In Buffalo's three wins, the fourth-year back out of Georgia has averaged 95 yards from scrimmage and 16 touches. Cook had a breakout performance against the Miami Dolphins in week 2 and if the Bills want to get back on track against the Texans, Cook has to be a focal point of the Buffalo offense. I think James Cook needs 85 or more yards from scrimmage and needs to find the end zone at least once for the Bills to be a winner on Sunday.
I think the CJ Stroud will need to take advantage of a depleted Bills defense - 250+ yards passing and 3+ touchdowns
The Buffalo Bills injury, and suspended, report reads a lot like their projected starting lineup. Due to injury, the Bills will be without Ed Oliver, Taron Johnson, Tyler Rapp, and Matt Milano. They also will not have the resurgent Von Miller who will serve the first of his four-game suspension for violating the league's personal conduct policy. The Texans will be missing their bell cow running back, Joe Mixon, and Cam Akers is unlikely to be a big difference-maker on the ground, even against the M.A.S.H unit that will be the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.
That leaves the Houston Texans' offense in the capable hands of 2023-24 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud and his talented crew of pass catchers. The Texans offense has underwhelmed in the season's first four games; averaging less than 20 points a game on their way to a 3-1 record, despite a minus 15 in point differential. The Bills looked bad against the Ravens, but Buffalo is still one of the best offenses in the league, and the Texans will have to score more than 24 points to win this game. CJ Stroud is the key to achieving that and if the Texans are going to win, he has to pass for 250 or more yards and 3 touchdowns against an undermanned Buffalo defense.
I think the Texans have to avoid the urge to make this a "Stefon Diggs revenge game" - Nico Collins to lead Texans in targets
On paper this is a battle of AFC heavyweights, both the Bills and Texans are 3-1 and are expected to challenge the Chiefs for AFC supremacy this year. This game is also the second time in three games that the Texans' wide receiver Stefon Diggs is facing one of his former teams. Against the Minnesota Vikings in week 3, Diggs had 10 catches on a team-leading 12 targets for 94 yards; and threw a touchdown pass. The Texans and CJ Stroud made it a point to feature Diggs against his former team. And the result was a 34-7 loss, the Texans' only loss of the year, to the Minnesota Vikings, probably the most surprising team in the NFL this year.
Conversely, Nico Collins, who is actually the Texans' best receiver, has led the team in targets in every one of their three wins. CJ Stroud is a young quarterback who wants to make his new weapon in Diggs happy. And DemMeco Ryans, a young former player, is also going to be tempted to let Diggs show the Bills that it wasn't his fault Buffalo couldn't reach the Super Bowl while he was on the team. Both Ryan and Stroud have to resist that urge, and Diggs has to be humble enough to do what's best for the team for the Texans to win. Diggs has to play second fiddle to Nico Collins, and the latter has to lead the Texans in targets if they are going to beat Buffalo.