The Buffalo Bills kickoff a three-game stretch of games away from Orchard Park where they will likely be underdogs in every game. Last week, I predicted Josh Allen would have to return to his MVP form from week one against the Arizona Cardinals.
He did just that, combining for over 300 yards passing and rushing and 4 passing touchdowns, all in the first half. In becoming the favorite for MVP, Allen proved that while the team's motto is "everyone eats," Josh Allen is the one serving the meals. So how can Allen and the Bills go get a win against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4 action?
I think Josh Allen will have to continue to be the MVP he's shown three weeks into the season - 300 passing and rushing yards and 3+ TDs
The Bills' skill talent is underrated but is still developing. And while James Cook had a breakout game against the Miami Dolphins, the Baltimore Ravens rank first in the NFL in rushing yards allowed. Conversely, they rank dead last in passing yards. The Bills will need Josh Allen, and his developing group of pass-catchers, including James Cook, to distribute the ball efficiently and effectively if they are going to send the Ravens to what would be a panic-inducing 1-3 start to the 2024 NFL season.
I think Allen needs to have more than 300 yards passing and rushing, combined, and 3 or more touchdowns for the Bills to pull off the mild upset in this one.
I think the Baltimore Ravens have to force Josh Allen into his first interceptions of the NFL season - 2+ INTs
In Josh Allen's seven-plus seasons with the Bills, Buffalo is undefeated when they don't commit a turnover. Saying a team wins when they don't over the ball is a little like saying "water is wet" and "the sky is blue". But not turning the ball over and producing like the Bills have done three weeks in makes them almost unbeatable.
Lost in the eye-popping stats Allen put up against the Cardinals and Jaguars, is his unworldly, and uncharacteristic, ball protection. Allen lost one fumble against the Cardinals but has thrown zero interceptions to go with his 7 TDs to start the season. Allen has led the league in turnovers over the past three years; if he can continue to protect the ball against the Ravens, Baltimore will be hard-pressed to win their first home game this season.
The issue for Baltimore in this matchup is that their pass defense is bad, like really bad. In addition to a league worse in yards allowed, the usual stout Ravens defense is average, at best, in pressuring opposing quarterbacks and forcing interceptions. The Ravens do have 10 sacks in 3 games and will have to rely on getting pressure on Josh Allen to force him into mistakes. But bringing pressure against Josh Allen, especially on the blitz puts pressure on the Ravens' back seven defenders to stop one of the best running quarterbacks in the game.
First-time defensive coordinator Zachary Orr is under pressure to improve the Ravens' defense, a task that will be exponentially more difficult facing Josh Allen and Bills impressive passing game. To win this game, I think the Ravens have to force Allen into two or more interceptions.
I think Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson have to be the dynamic duo Baltimore expects - 125+ rushing yards and 3+ TDs
The Baltimore Ravens would love to have a balanced offense. And in some ways, under second-year offensive coordinator Todd Monken, they have been. But in other ways, as the late Dennis Green would say: "They are who we thought they were." The Ravens have the league's top rushing offense. And while they are in the top 10 in passing yards, in their win against the Dallas Cowboys, their lone win of the season, the Ravens rushed for over 250 yards, led by Derrick Henry's 151 yards and 2 TDs, and Lamar Jackson's 87 yards and 1TD.
The Buffalo Bills defense is missing three starters, including their two best linebackers, Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano. The Bill's defensive line has been excellent this season, but they are constructed more like a "get after the quarterback" unit than they are a "stop a Sherman tank" unit. And Derrick Henry is a Sherman tank type of running back.
Add Jackson's speed and ability to run on any play and the Bills will struggle to stop the Ravens' rushing attack. If the Bills can hold up at the point of attack and slow down Henry and Jackson, the Ravens will struggle to win this game. Running the ball also takes the ball out of Josh Allen and the, so far, unstoppable Buffalo offense. I think the Ravens rushing duo needs to amass 125-plus yards and 3 or more touchdowns to win this game.