What I think - What are the key factors in the Monday Night Football matchup between the Bills and the Jaguars?
I think Josh Allen needs to be the Bills best player in week 3 - 250+ total yards and 2+ TDs
Two games into the season, Josh Allen has one MVP effort, and 4 total touchdowns against the Arizona Cardinals, and was a non-factor, with 141 yards total offense and 1 touchdown in a Thursday night win against the Miami Dolphins. Wins where Josh Allen is not Superman for the Bills are nice; but they're unlikely to be numerous. James Cook must continue to be a factor in the run game. But very few game scripts will mirror the Bills' win against the Dolphins last Thursday and Jacksonville's stout run defense, against two good running teams in Miami and Cleveland, will make Josh Allen the focal point of the Bills offense.
The injury to Allen's left hand is still a question mark. He ran 2 times for 2 yards and looked uncomfortable taking the snap at times against Miami. The Bills motto this year is "everyone eats," which speaks to their need to give opportunities to their largely unproven skill players to make plays. But Allen will have to lead the charge for the Bills to continue their strong 2-0 start. Look for Allen to use his legs against Jacksonville and account for more than 250 yards on the ground and through the air. He'll need to add two or more touchdowns to get the Bills offense rolling and continue Buffalo's undefeated streak.
I think whatever team's defense forces the most turnovers will win
The Bill and Jaguars have very similar offensive and defensive stats. The main difference in the teams' early season results can be attributed to turnover margin. The Bills have turned their opponents over four times through week two, while the Jaguars were one of two teams (along with the Cleveland Browns) with no takeaways coming into week 3. Turnovers kill an offense's momentum, but more importantly for the Bills and Jaguars, they give a team's offense good field position following the turnover.
The Jaguars are last in average drive starting position after week 2; with an average drive start of their 23-yard line. In contrast, the Bills average drive start is their 39-yard line. As a result, despite gaining only 9 yards less than the Bills in two games, the Jaguars have scored a meager 30 points in their first two games and are 0-2 on the season. The Bills have scored 65 points and remain undefeated. If the Jaguars are going to avoid an 0-3 start, they are going to have to force multiple takeaways and win the turnover battle in Orchard Park.
I Think the Bills need to sack Trevor Lawrence 3+ times
The Bills defensive line has been very good this season. After a breakout game by Greg Rousseau, who had three sacks in week 1 against the Cardinals, Von Miller recorded his second sack of the season against Miami in week 2 and looks, at least in part, like the dominant pass-rusher the Bills were expecting before his injury. The Bills have 6 sacks on the season; a number which puts them in the middle of the pack of NFL defenses but is more impressive when you consider they have the second-lowest blitz rate in the league at 12%.
Getting a good pass rush without blitzing takes the pressure off a secondary that is replacing 3 of its 4 starters from last year and is without starting nickel corner Taron Johnson due to injury. With injuries to top linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano, getting pressure on the quarterback without blitzing allows defensive coordinator Bobby Babich to scheme his back seven defenders against the pass and control the opposing passing game without risking coverage issues caused by blitzing.