NFL predictions: How many touchdown passes will rookie quarterbacks throw?
A ton of rookie quarterbacks could get some action in the 2024 NFL Season. Let's try to predict how many touchdown passes some of them will throw. This rookie QB class seems to be among the best the NFL has seen is quite some time, but there is always a chance that this class ends up being shaky.
To me, as of now, there are three obvious rookie quarterbacks who are going to start for their new teams in the 2024 NFL Season. Beyond that, let's try to predict how many touchdown passes some rookie QBs will throw in their first year in the NFL.
NFL predictions: How many touchdown passes will rookie quarterbacks throw?
5. Michael Penix Jr - 4
The Atlanta Falcons decision to take Michael Penix Jr in the 2024 NFL Draft was a odd one, and with them signing Kirk Cousins, Penix is not going to start for the team for potentially multiple years. Nonetheless, the Falcons may give Penix some opportunities in the lineup if the game is out of hand one way or another.
This could be done to preserve Kirk Cousins for late in the season and to also give Penix some useful reps, so he may be able to carve out a handful of touchdown passes.
4. Drake Maye - 13
Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett still seem to be battling it out for the New England Patriots QB1 job, and I am not sure that Maye starts all 17 games or even appears in all 17 games. To me, it could be a season for Maye where he is in and out of the lineup, and I would not entirely trust the New England Patriots underwhelming coaching staff to do the right thing here.
Drake Maye will definitely throw some touchdown passes, but it won't be a ton.
3. Jayden Daniels - 20
Jayden Daniels was officially named the starting QB of the Washington Commanders, but Washington does have a bit of a rougher situation on offense outside of Terry McLaurin. They don't have a very good offensive line, RB room, or TE room. Jayden Daniels may have a ton on his plate and may have to work with a below-average situation.
If Daniels finished his rookie season with 20 touchdown passes and around 12 interceptions, I would not be surprised. He won't have it very easy in year one in the NFL.
2. Bo Nix - 24
Bo Nix might end up being the most efficient rookie QB in year one and could end up being the best QB from the 2024 NFL Draft class. Nix has looked excellent during the Denver Broncos first two preseason games, and the fit with Sean Payton's offense is seamless.
It's hard for me to see Nix not having an efficient season in year one. He's got all the tools, including mobility and arm talent, to have a long NFL career. Bo Nix and Sean Payton could end up being a duo here to stay for Denver. He'll throw for a modest amount of touchdown passes in year one.
1. Caleb Williams - 25
Caleb Williams was clearly the best QB in the 2024 NFL Draft, and he'll probably throw the most touchdown passes of any rookie QB. I don't believe he'll throw for any sort of gaudy numbers, but Williams seems to be legit and seems to have a great chance at a sustained and successful NFL career.
He may have a three-headed monster at WR in DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen. He's also got two very capable tight ends in Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett. The offensive line is solid, and the defense also seems quite good, so the Chicago Bears may end up being one of the more fun, complete teams in the NFL for 2024.
Caleb Williams is going to have a great rookie season.