The 2024 AFC playoff race may already be over if you think about it

The AFC is actually an underwhelming conference this season, and we could already be looking at the seven playoff teams. Right now, from the first to the seventh seeds, the AFC playoffs feature the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, and Denver Broncos.

Right now, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, all of those teams have playoff odds of at least 68%, meaning. Of the seven teams here, the Broncos have the lowest odds at 68%, which is still pretty high. All of the other six teams do have playoff odds of at least 90%, so this race feels over, doesn't it?

If we look at the next three teams occupying the 8-10 seeds, the Indianapolis Colts have a 30% chance, the Miami Dolphins have a 9% chance, and the Cincinnati Bengals have a 9% chance as well.

No other team in the AFC has a playoff chance greater than 2% after that, so this conference is bad. It's very bad.

The remaining teams in the AFC who are not in the playoff picture all have 5 wins or less, and given how low their playoff chances are, is the playoff race in the AFC just about over?

I think so. The current teams in the AFC playoff picture are going to be the seven that to represent the conference in the playoffs. The biggest question here is how the seeds will work out. To me, the Denver Broncos are probably locked into the seven seed, and the Houston Texans feel locked into the fourth seed.

The question becomes how the rest of the seeds shake-out. The Kansas City Chiefs could find themselves holding the fort down for the one seed, but losing to the Buffalo Bills does put them at a disadvantage if they lose another game. They still have to play the Chargers, Texans, Steelers, and Broncos, so another loss from there could bump them down.

But what about the Buffalo Bills? Their toughest remaining opponent is the Detroit Lions, so that could be chalked up as another loss. The Pittsburgh Steelers are probably locked into that three seed on second thought, as their ceiling is limited with Russell Wilson, but they do have two-fewer losses than the Baltimore Ravens, so that is a huge lead.

And the last team we have not mentioned is the LA Chargers, who are 7-3 and are slightly above the Ravens in the Wild Card standings. The Chargers do have a pretty brutal stretch coming up against teams like the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, and Broncos, so another couple of losses could be on the way.

There are a few seeds in the AFC playoffs that feel locked-in, but there could be some changes down the stretch. However, it is hard for me to envision another team currently on the outside looking in making a run into the playoffs.