Tennessee Titans: Passing on Leonard Williams makes sense

The Tennessee Titans are reportedly smitten with Zach Mettenberger, and while it’s not a sentiment I remotely agree with, it would be foolish to deny that the LSU product easily exceeded expectations as a rookie. Thrown into the fire, Mettenberger showed much better pocket presence than anticipated, allowing him to make up for his lack of mobility and find time to hit up the likes of Justin Hunter for aggressive deep throws. I’ve always viewed Marcus Mariota as the best option for the Titans, since I don’t think they are in a position to pass up on a top-notch QB prospect.

But if the Titans do pass up on Mariota, then it looks like they won’t pass up on him in favor of former USC star Leonard Williams. The Tennessean’s Jim Wyatt, who is the most plugged-in Titans reporter around, tweeted that he doesn’t “see” the team drafting Williams at No. 2. In a reply, Wyatt added that he doesn’t see the Titans taking Williams because the team has “bigger needs” to fill.

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As Wyatt notes, his statement goes against what was once seen as a consensus among mock drafts, but it’s something I agree with. The Titans are, as Pro Football Talk’s Darin Gantt notes, fans of Mariota but would prefer to trade down from the second overall pick if the right offer comes across their table. With teams like the Cleveland Browns, San Diego Chargers, and Philadelphia Eagles potentially interested in securing arguably the draft’s best QB, it seems like the Titans have a good shot at getting a good deal out of their first-round selection.

No need is bigger than the quarterback position, so if the Titans are comfortable with starting Mettenberger this season and don’t feel the need to draft Mariota, then trading down makes sense. The Titans have so many needs across their roster that tight end, outside linebacker, and defensive end are the only positions they are unquestionably fine at as a team.

Wait, defensive end? Yes. Jurrell Casey is easily one of the league’s most dominant defensive linemen, and he took well to the transition to being a 3-4 DE, producing, per Pro Football Focus, 15 QB hits and a team-high 48 defensive stops. On the other side of the line, Ropati Pitoitua is a borderline-dominant run defender who is one of the unsung heroes on the defense, though the contract he penned last offseason says that the Titans have long understood his importance up front.

Backup Karl Klug, who came out of the same class as Casey, doesn’t put up big numbers but is a good sub-package interior pass rusher who can bring some disruption to the opposing passing attack.

That’s a solid crew, and it’s part of the case against drafting Williams, who is arguably the safest prospect in the entire class. See, if the Titans can’t find a worthy trade partner and are forced to stand pat at No. 2, then they pretty much have to draft Mariota. Unless if the Titans are that crazy about Mettenberger (while I think they understandably like him, I think the idea that they view him as a “poor man’s Tom Brady” is a smokescreen), then they pretty much have to take the opportunity to draft Mariota at that spot.

I view a trade down as the most likely scenario for the Titans on draft day, but if that isn’t feasible, then it’s hard to see them taking Williams. While he’s a great player who will immediately make a big difference against the run and is a solid enough pass rusher, he wouldn’t help the team nearly as much as Mariota would. The Titans need to build talent throughout the roster but, if they can’t achieve that, then only a franchise quarterback would be good enough to overcome those talent deficiencies elsewhere.

There’s also the matter that Ruston Webster and Ken Whisenhunt could buy themselves some more time by drafting Mariota, because his success could make them look more successful (much in the same way Whisenhunt looked better with Kurt Warner at quarterback) and save their jobs. Perhaps Mettenberger could do the same, but if Mettenberger fails, those two are fired. If Mariota fails, then the same outcome will happen, but it would happen further down the road.

Nov 30, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Zach Mettenberger (7) throws in the pocket against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Of course, decisions shouldn’t be made based on “buying time”, but with Casey, Pitoitua, and Klug at DE vs. Mettenberger at QB at a more important position, the choice is an easy one to me. And since the Titans veteran stopgap is Charlie Whitehurst, I have a hard time believing that the Tennessee Titans are as comfortable with their current QB situation as they’d like us to think.

If the Titans don’t take Mariota at No. 2, then Wyatt believes Cooper would be the more likely option. It seems like over-drafting until you look at the Titans wide receiver corps.

It’s the solid Wright, the totally boom-or-bust Hunter, the decent Harry Douglas, and the veteran flier Hakeem Nicks. If the Titans are going to roll into 2015 with Mettenberger as the starter, then they need a true No. 1 receiver.

Cooper has playmaking ability and is arguably an even safer prospect than Williams at a bigger position of need that would most directly help their QB (since their QB’s success is the organization’s success).

When you put it into those terms, Wyatt’s declaration isn’t as outlandish as a few people may think.

Next: What will Hakeem Nicks bring?

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