Matthew Stafford Facing a Make or Break Year
By Zac Wassink
Believe it or not, we could be on the verge of the beginning of the end of the Matthew Stafford era at the Detroit Lions.
The Detroit Lions wouldn’t actually get rid of Matthew Stafford after 2016; right?
Franchise quarterbacks do not, after all, grow on trees. You can ask the Cleveland Browns about that. The Browns have been searching for even a serviceable QB who can start 16 consecutive games since the franchise returned to the National Football League in 1999, and that search resulted in the team taking a shot on Washington Redskins flop Robert Griffin III because, well, because why not?
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Stafford has not yet won anything of merit as a member of the Lions. He hasn’t guided the Lions to a conference championship. Stafford has put up impressive numbers over the years, but the truth of the matter is that his time with the Lions has, for the most part, been rather forgettable heading into the summer of 2016.
Name the career-defining moment on Stafford’s resume. Try to think of a time when Stafford was legitimately seen as one of the best overall QBs in the NFL. Come up with a list of guys who were, beyond a doubt, made better just because they were able to play alongside Stafford with the Lions.
Whether or not you view Stafford as a true franchise QB is probably determined by your definition of the term. Could Stafford start for over half of the teams in the NFL? Sure. Is Stafford good enough to take a halfway-decent team to the playoffs? Probably. Will Stafford out-duel the very best in the NFL to win a postseason showdown?
Don’t bet the house on that one.
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The NFL is the ultimate “win now” business of professional sports. A NFL team that fails to make the postseason one year is, per the structure of the league, supposed to be able to contend for a playoff spot if not play multiple meaningful January football games the next campaign.
Another reason the NFL is a “what have you done for me lately?” league is because of the nature of a player contract. Any NFL player, even the very best in the league, is only guaranteed so much money over so much time. There eventually comes a year when a team can part ways with the player in question without suffering a serious hit.
The year for Stafford and the Lions is 2017, and 2017 is fast approaching.
Stafford, as most fans of the Lions probably know, is signed through the 2017 NFL regular season. Things get interesting, though, when you look at the “dead money” valuations of his deal. Per Spotrac, Stafford’s dead money hit goes from $11 million in 2016 to only $5.5 million in 2017.
Yes, the Lions could realistically consider pulling the plug on the Stafford experiment if things go terribly wrong between now and New Year’s Day.
Stafford has not, as of May 2016, given the Lions any real reason to consider extending his current deal. It is not enough that Stafford, who turned 28-years-old earlier this year, is about to enter what should be the prime years of his playing career. Neither the Lions nor anybody else can, with any certainty, predict the highs and/or the lows of Stafford’s prime.
For starters, how is Stafford going to respond to Calvin Johnson no longer being a target on the field? Eli Manning‘s career changed when the New York Giants gave him Plaxico Burress as a safety blanket to throw to when things got dicey in the pocket. It took Manning years — plural — to get over the loss of Burress.
Even Stafford not missing a beat without having the retired “Megatron” on the field should not, on its own, mean that Stafford has a long-term home in Detroit.
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It was only seven months ago when just about everything that could go wrong was going wrong for the Lions. The team’s general manager and team president were fired, and it seemed as if it was only a matter of time before head coach Jim Caldwell, Stafford, WR Golden Tate and anybody else with a name was going to be shipped out of town before Christmas. Stafford and company ultimately received reprieves, but that may not be the case if the Lions stumble out of the gates this coming fall.
Logic suggests that Caldwell is already on a short leash. The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers should both compete for a playoff spot. The Chicago Bears are difficult to read, but the Bears could make some waves in the division standings if they are able to get out of their own way (looking at you, Jay Cutler).
Imagine, for the sake of argument, that the Lions suffer another losing season, and that those running the club respond by giving Caldwell his marching orders. A new coaching staff, one that never drafted or signed Stafford, would, in such a scenario, have quite the commodity on its hands: A solid QB who is not yet 30-years-old, who would be playing in a contract year and who could use a change of scenery.
That coaching staff would have to at least consider fielding offers for Stafford’s services. They would be silly to not take those calls.
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This is all, of course, only speculation during a rather quiet time on the NFL calendar. Maybe Stafford, Tate and company will have the best seasons of their careers and go on a magical run that results in the Lions playing postseason football. Such a run may be what it takes for Stafford to be with Detroit come May 2017.
In a way, Stafford’s playoffs begin this summer when training camp kicks off.