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Arizona Cardinals: Larry Fitzgerald mostly right about his stats

By Kevin Parvizi

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Arizona Cardinals future Hall of Fame wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is no stranger to seeing his numbers squashed by poor quarterback play, and that’s been the story of his career without the legendary Kurt Warner under center. Last season, Fitzgerald caught just 63 passes for 784 yards and two touchdowns, and all of those totals were the lowest of his career if you don’t count his rookie season (he did have eight TDs as a rookie, though, so his touchdowns were indeed a career low).

Fitzgerald has an explanation for his lack of production last season, and he points to his role in the offense as that reason, going as far to say that it’s his “only” explanation.

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He told Arizona Sports 98.7 FM’s Burns & Gambo, via Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio, that it’s “not possible” for him to produce big numbers in the Cardinals offense, “No, it’s not possible. And it’s only that reason, because of the role that I play.  It’s a different role.  I just don’t have the opportunities down the field.  I’m more inside, I move the chains a lot more.  So in terms of putting up the big numbers,  it will be difficult.  But in terms of my effectiveness, of providing first downs, being able to make tough catches for my team, I’m still going to be able to do that.”

So let’s assess the validity of Fitzgerald’s claim, because it’s one that could conceivably go either way. It’s hard to say whether or not his role is the only reason, though, because he had to deal with Drew Stanton and Ryan Lindley as his quarterbacks for much of the season. It’s kind of hard to produce with those two guys throwing you passes.

According to Advanced Football Analytics, Fitzgerald caught just 61.1% of everything thrown at him, and yet that was still good enough to lead the team. I mean, when the Cardinals QBs not-named-Palmer were putting up completion percentages of 55.0% and 48.4% (no prizes for guessing which QB had the lowest completion percentage), it’s hard to be surprised that a catch rate above 60% is a strong number in the Cardinals offense.

Per Pro Football Focus, just 13 of Fitzgerald’s 103 targets came on passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield, and the former Pitt standout ended up with a slightly higher catch rate and slightly lower drop rate than deep threat Michael Floyd, who averaged 17.9 yards per reception last season. In fact, that drop was Fitzgerald’s lone drop of the entire season, and the fact that the Cardinals QBs threw no picks when targeting Fitzgerald helps cement the veteran’s status as a reliable chain-mover.

Central to Fitzgerald’s argument is the notion that he provides “first downs” for the offense, so let’s see if we can find statistical measures confirming this. While his team-high catch rate should come as no surprise, it is the most basic confirmation (along with the second-lowest drop rate in the league) of his importance as a chain-mover. Unfortunately for Fitzgerald, he was outside of the top 50 in total first downs generated (39), but this is a fluky stat.

First of all, his 103 targets were tied for 47th in the league with Philadelphia Eagles rookie Jordan Matthews. Secondly, deep threats have a higher first down%, because theoretically most of their catches are big plays that inevitably go for first downs.

Even though these statistics aren’t an exact science, I prefer to use Advanced Football Analytics’s WPA per game and EPA per game to measure the effectiveness of a receiver’s ability to make catches in key spots, since these stats are weighed based on down and distance, score, and time in the game to add a bit of a “clutch” factor to each reception. Fitzgerald was 11th in the league last season in WPA per game and 25th in EPA per game.

That’s pretty good, but the most important takeaway is the difference between his WPA and EPA totals. EPA stands for “expected points added” and WPA “win probability added), so the fact that his weighted sum for win probability rates him considerably higher than his EPA implies that he did indeed make key catches for his team.

But onto the whole idea of his role hurting him. It’s interesting to see that Fitzgerald averaged just 7.4 targets per game, and he only had four more targets last season than Floyd. Again, he was barely in the top 50 among all players in total targets. He received less targets as a percentage of his team’s total pass attempts than Mike Wallace did despite the fact that he had a higher catch rate and more yards per target than the Miami Dolphins less reliable wideout.

Jan 3, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald (11) warms up before the 2014 NFC Wild Card playoff football game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Larry Fitzgerald is never going to sell out his quarterbacks, so the fact that he claims his role as a possession receiver and underneath decoy (his low yards per route run does not match up with his decent 7.6 yards per target) to deep threats John Brown and Floyd is the “only reason” for his statistical decline is a way of him pushing blame away from his quarterbacks last season.

Neither Stanton nor Lindley are capable of leading an offense in this league due to their lack of accuracy, and it didn’t help that Fitzgerald wasn’t targeted as often as most possession guys either.

In all honesty, Fitzgerald is more of a decoy than a chain-mover, but he does make key catches when called upon. There are, of course, many reasons for his mildly disappointing numbers last season, and while most of them deal with his role and QB situation with Palmer out, it is fair to say that he obviously isn’t the same receiver he used to be.

He’s still effective, though, and his ability to block and free up others with his intermediate routes is a huge relief for an offense that loves to utilize vertical passes to Brown and Floyd. Without Fitzgerald putting in the dirty work, the Arizona Cardinals offense wouldn’t be the same, which is why they did what they could to keep him around.

He’s no longer a top-ten receiver and didn’t have enough targets to reflect his status as a true No. 1 guy, but that’s because the Cardinals seem to prefer him to be an unselfish decoy and possession receiver than a bona fide star.He’ll have a legit quarterback back next season in Palmer, but, as Fitzgerald said, it isn’t feasible to expect big numbers from him, mostly because of his role in the offense.

Next: Brett Hundley an option for Cardinals?

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