Every year the fantasy busts hit us like a ton of bricks. With value in mind, these are the biggest busts at each major position. It’s Fantasy Football 2016.
Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.
TODD:
With Week 1 of the NFL season right around the corner, these are the final chances to draft your fantasy football team for the 2016 season without missing any of the action. We previously addressed what it means to be a fantasy sleeper and who those sleepers will be this season. Now it is time for the reverse: the dreaded busts.
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We know there will be busts, likely dozens of them. The key is zeroing in on who will bust and why. That is no easy task. Last year, many publications sited Eddie Lacy as the number one overall pick in fantasy. Instead of a top guy, owners got Fat Eddie Lacy and little production.
I don’t believe the top overall pick is going to go bust again, but there will be first-round picks and many early round selections that do. My first bust pick is the number one running back going in the average draft: Los Angeles’ Todd Gurley.
Todd Gurley – Running Back, Los Angeles Rams
Gurley is a beast. There is no denying that. But I am greatly concerned about his 2016 production. There will be no running lanes for him. The Rams will have one of the worst passing offenses in the league and their entire offensive output will fall to Gurley. No matter how good he is, it is hard to run against eight-man fronts.
Also, Gurley was good last year but not always efficient. According to Football Outsiders, he ranked just 36th in the league in success rate, which measures a back’s ability to complete a given play versus getting stuffed or knocked for a loss.
There is also a lingering threat of injury with Gurley, though that remains true with pretty much every running back. The injury threat is what leaves the bust door open for this second player: Washington tight end Jordan Reed.
Jordan Reed – Tight End, Washington Redskins
Reed was stupendous last year for a breakthrough Redskins squad. Off of that season, he is the second tight end off the board in nearly all fantasy drafts. The problem is Reed’s season was greatly touchdown-dependent, and it showed a level of health that he had never previously showed.
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Reed has been in the league three seasons and has missed multiple games every year. Even last year, he played in just 14 games, starting just nine times. Yet both totals were career-highs by a wide margin. His 114 targets nearly doubled his career-high in that department not because he became a different player but because he was finally on the field for extended stretches.
And then there are the 11 touchdowns. He had three total touchdowns over the previous two seasons combined. Reed fits the description of someone who should be a huge red zone threat, but I’m not convinced 11 touchdowns is a proper baseline. It seems more fluky. I’d feel nervous taking Reed early in drafts. He has huge bust potential.
DAN:
Major red flags with both Reed and Gurley. It’s unlikely that the tight end can repeat his performance of a season ago, especially at a high enough level to warrant being taken directly behind Rob Gronkowski. As for the second year running back, I think he has a great season, but not first pick greatness. He’s likely to disappoint anyone who chooses him over Antonio Brown to start their draft.
It’s only fair that I identify a bust at wide receiver and quarterback, to complement your picks and create a full set of offensive players to avoid. Starting with the wide out position, Julio Jones of the Falcons is going to make owners cry.
Julio Jones – Wide Receiver, Atlanta Falcons
Jones is going third among receivers and fourth overall on average in fantasy drafts. If last season is any indication, then what the hell are owners thinking? He had only two multi-touchdown games all year in 2015 and only reached the endzone eight times total. So while his receptions and yards were solid, Jones disappointed. Touchdowns are a necessity for your top wide receiver. Jones has value at the position, but not fourth overall value.
Atlanta will likely be a much improved team this year. One could argue this is good news for Jones and his production. But last season the Falcons lost a lot, meaning they played from behind a lot. Did this translate into increased points for Julio Jones? Not where it counts, in the endzone. If the team is better, the ball likely gets spread around more, leaving no indication that Jones’ value is any higher. He’s not the fourth overall pick.
To the quarterback position we go, where overall owners realize many players are very good. But Andrew Luck of the Colts is being over valued in a sport known for its motto of “what have you done for me lately.”
Andrew Luck – Quarterback, Indianapolis Colts
Luck is being taken as the 4th quarterback overall on average, putting him in the precarious position of needing to dominate to earn his fantasy value. In seven games last season he tossed 15 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. That is not a good ratio. Ultimately his bust status comes down to the team around him and who else you can take instead of Andrew Luck.
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The Colts are being overvalued as a football team and Luck is being overvalued as a fantasy quarterback. I don’t trust the team’s running game, making it easy for defenses to cue on Luck and double team Indy’s receivers. All of this adds up to Luck once again racking up turnovers. He may have nice stats otherwise, but why take him over Ben Roethlisberger or Carson Palmer? You’re setting yourself up for disappointment. Don’t do it.