As the Detroit Lions gear up for the 2017 season, is Matthew Stafford a contender to win the MVP award for the first time in his career?
It’s been an interesting week for the Detroit Lions and their fans. While much of the focus has been centered on the aftermath of a disappointing showing against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots first-team offense, an interesting little item hit the web in recent days.
Mike Freeman of Bleacher Report speculated in his latest “10-Point Stance” column that Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford could emerge as a legitimate candidate to win the NFL’s MVP award in 2017.
Freeman believes that Stafford has made significant strides as a passer, and that, coupled with several other positive things going on around the organization, will allow him to realize the immense potential he has always held:
"Stafford’s growth is a big part of why it feels like the Lions organization is turning a corner. Detroit has more offensive weapons, better depth and an improved coaching staff. And it has a solid defense in place, too."
Fair enough, although it should be noted that these comments were published before Brady and the Pats dominated the Lions defense. Even so, it’s not such a ridiculous notion, especially when one considers that the former Georgia standout was discussed as a potential MVP winner in 2016, before an injured finger helped derail his and the Lions’ campaign. If he could engineer the most fourth-quarter comebacks in a single season prior to said injury, why shouldn’t he be in the mix for the prestigious award this time around?
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For starters, the schedule is a lot tougher this season. Last year, the Lions defeated exactly one team that finished above .500. In 2017, that’s simply not going to be good enough. In addition to matchups within the NFC North, the Lions face off with the rapidly improving NFC South and the always competitive AFC North this time around.
The Lions must find a way to stop a plethora of franchise quarterbacks in the process, and if the showing against Brady’s bunch is any indication, that’s not going to be a walk in the park by any stretch of the imagination.
Make no mistake about it, the Lions are going to struggle against many of these opponents, and will have an incredibly difficult time matching last season’s 9-7 record. It’s next to impossible to earn an MVP nod when your team is fighting for a playoff spot.
The last five MVP award-winning quarterbacks were Matt Ryan in 2016 (11 wins), Cam Newton in 2015 (15 wins), Aaron Rodgers in 2014 (12 wins), Peyton Manning in 2013 (13 wins), and Rodgers in 2011 (14 wins).
That averages out to 13 wins per season for these signal callers. As talented as Stafford is, and as much optimism as there currently may be surrounding the Lions, it seems far-fetched to predict a 13-win season for this squad. Even matching Ryan’s 11-win campaign seems largely out of the question at this point.
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Freeman also addresses another important issue pertaining to Stafford, discussing the veteran’s lingering contract talks:
"Speaking a bit more about Stafford, he’s going to get a new contract; it’s just a question of when. As of now, however, things don’t seem to be moving quickly. That can always change in an instant, but speaking to someone close to Stafford, I get the sense his side isn’t overly optimistic something can get done before the start of the season."
At this point of the offseason, these statements shouldn’t surprise anyone. After all, negotiations have dragged to the point that they seem to have almost completely stalled out. Stafford seems content to bet on himself in a contract season in the hopes of maximizing his windfall as the quarterback market continues to reset itself. With several high-profile passers set to receive enormous new deals in the near future, it’s in Stafford’s best interest to capitalize on the market’s adjustment.
Having said that, there is a certain amount of risk involved in such a strategy. Stafford is coming off one of his finest and most efficient seasons, and any negative regression in 2017 could result in a perceived decrease in his value. Perception is often reality in the NFL, and a sharp downturn in his play could lessen his haul in free agency.
So what does this have to do with his MVP bid? On the surface, not much, but it could conceivably be a significant factor in his performance. While some view this situation as a potential distraction, it could easily be seen as a positive. There is little question that he is a terrific quarterback who is capable of succeeding in this league, but in a contract year he will be as motivated as ever to produce the finest season of his career.
Next: NFL 2017: Predictions for MVP, every award
Stafford’s unique combination of talent, seasoning, improved supporting cast, and contract situation positions him as an intriguing sleeper MVP candidate. The 2017 campaign is poised to be the latest in a long line of high-pressure situations for the ninth-year pro. If he is able to respond to such adversity the way he did on eight separate occasions last year, he could prove Mike Freeman correct and earn himself an awful lot of money in the process.