Fantasy Football 2019: Impact of Green Bay Packers coaching changes

The Green Bay Packers hired head coach Matt LaFleur in the offseason. What kind of impact can we expect from a fantasy football perspective?

Successful fantasy football owners are always looking for an edge over the competition, and keeping tabs on coaching changes is one way to do so. In a series of articles that examine the impact of new offensive coordinators and head coaches, we’ve broken down the fantasy football impacts of new coaches on the following teams:

15. Cleveland Browns, 14. Washington Redskins, 13. Baltimore Ravens, 12. Denver Broncos, 11. Tennessee Titans, 10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 9. Miami Dolphins, 8. Cincinnati Bengals, 7. Jacksonville Jaguars.

Next up in the series and occupying the No. 6 spot, we make the leap into Lambeau. Let’s see how Matt LaFleur and his staff are most likely to influence the fantasy football outcomes of Green Bay Packers players this season.

6. Green Bay Packers

New Head Coach: Matt LaFleur

Newly departed Clay Matthews was funnier in commercials but quarterback Aaron Rodgers remains the face of the franchise. The Packers shook up their coaching staff this offseason, following well-publicized friction between Rodgers and ex-coach Mike McCarthy.

Enter Matt LaFleur, former Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator. The young coach proved he’s human by tearing his Achilles tendon on the basketball court in May but his pedigree to date is positively impressive.

LaFleur was the quarterbacks coach for Robert Griffin III in 2012 during his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. He then served in the same role for Matt Ryan in 2016 during his MVP season. LaFleur parlayed those successes into his first offensive coordinator gig with the Los Angeles Rams in 2017. All he did there was conduct an offense that led the league in points scored with second-year quarterback Jared Goff at the helm.

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What remains to be seen is how well he and Rodgers will work together. Early returns are promising, as LaFleur revealed his approach with the veteran quarterback during a recent interview with Peter King of NBC Sports:

"“From a play-caller mentality…I’ve always viewed that relationship as more of a partnership, because he plays the toughest position in all of sports, in my opinion, and you want to make sure he’s comfortable with everything you’re doing. There’s constant communication going on to make sure that we’re all on the same page, and to ensure he’s comfortable and confident in what we’re doing. I know if *he’s* confident with what’s going on, the other 10 guys in the huddle are going to be pretty confident.”"

These remarks came after LaFleur’s vocalized plans to give Rodgers more freedom to improvise at the line of scrimmage as part of this partnership. A new coach who’s planning to “let Aaron Rodgers be Aaron Rodgers,” so to speak, instead of hamstringing the future Hall of Famer’s ability to work off of pre-snap and post-snap reads (or retrofitting him into a prefab system) is exactly the kind of talk fantasy football owners want to hear.

Rodgers’ primary weapon, Davante Adams, finished as the WR2 overall in PPR fantasy football leagues last season. It’s fair to wonder if the two-time Pro Bowler from Fresno State would’ve finished as the WR1 had he not played in one fewer game than DeAndre Hopkins, who bested Adams by fewer than six points.

Regardless, Adams remains a consensus WR2 going into this season and is an obvious first-round pick in just about any league. One thing isn’t as clear: the wide receiver depth chart behind him.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison continue to battle for the second wide receiver spot in training camp. Regardless of who wins out, both should see plenty of run in an offense that’s a great bet to be a top 10 passing offense for the ninth time in the last eleven years.

In PPR leagues, the two wide receivers are close in value. Allison (ADP: 8.03) has established trust with Rodgers in the past. The 6-3, 202-pound wide receiver from of Illinois offers a higher floor and will see plenty of looks when chains need to be moved.

The 6-4, 206-pound Valdes-Scantling, meanwhile, offers far more breakaway speed and athleticism, and therefore, more upside at his ADP of 9.03. “MVS,” as he’s colloquially known, is the better choice in best-ball and performance leagues.

Those who say “everything’s bigger in Texas” might want to spend some time in Wisconsin. Fantasy owners mining for late-round gems in deep leagues should also keep tabs on these two tall receivers: 6-5 physical specimen Equanimeous St. Brown and 6-4 Jake Kumerow, the latter of whom LaFleur called “consistent” and “extremely reliable,” according to Zack Kruse of Packerswire.com (USA Today).

The tight end position doesn’t offer as much upside, per usual; there hasn’t been a Pro Bowl tight end from Green Bay in 15 years (Bubba Franks, 2003). Unless Jimmy Graham finds the Fountain of Youth and generates an uptick in targets, the non-factor tight end trend should continue for the foreseeable future until rookie Jace Sternberger, a dynasty league sleeper, asserts himself in the coming years.

From the beginning, Matt LaFleur has stated that the Packers will use a committee approach in his backfield. Here’s what the new coach had to say on the subject back in February, shortly after he was hired:

Fantasy owners currently drafting the 5-9, 208-pound UTEP product Aaron Jones at his third-round ADP either don’t care, or don’t believe LaFleur. Jamal Williams, a sturdy 6-0, 213-pound BYU standout, is a good bet to notch plenty of short-yardage and goal-line work and should serve as a backfield blocker from time to time on passing downs.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame rookie Dexter Williams stated his case to serve as Jones’ backup with 80 yards on 15 touches in the preseason opener. However, neither of the Williamses possess a three-down skill set.

The departure of Ty Montgomery leaves no true pass-catching third-down back, so make no mistake: Jones is essentially unchallenged as the lead back of this “committee,” in whatever form it might take. He is a very solid bet to deliver on his current third round price, especially in PPR leagues.

The fantasy outlook for the Packers is strong. Vegas expects them to finish second in a tough division, which means plenty of positive and neutral game scripts for Rodgers and the Packers.

Green Bay is unlikely to match last year’s league-leading pass ratio (an astonishing 67.54 percent), but as long as the huddle is commanded by a consensus top-four fantasy quarterback, expect the Packers to once again field a top 10 passing attack with multiple draftable options at wide receiver.

Rodgers offers an ADP (5.09) that’s more appealing than in past years, but proponents of waiting until later rounds for quarterbacks in 12-team, 1-QB drafts, won’t recommend taking him there. Aaron Jones in the third round is the smarter proposition.

Under LaFleur, the run should be a bigger part of the Green Bay game plan. Expect the offense to hold the ball long enough in games for the ground game to produce more fantasy points than it has in past seasons.