Fantasy Football 2019: Impact of Detroit Lions coaching changes

Darrell Bevell is now the Alpha of the Detroit Lions offense. What can fantasy football owners expect from Matt Stafford, Kerryon Johnson, and the rest of the Pride?

Over half of NFL teams have replaced their offensive coordinators or head coaches this offseason. In order to help fantasy football owners find negative variances and positive trends before their league-mates, we’ve undertaken a series of articles to analyze the impact of these new coaching changes. So far, we’ve given the outlooks for the following teams:

15. Cleveland Browns, 14. Washington Redskins, 13. Baltimore Ravens, 12. Denver Broncos, 11. Tennessee Titans, 10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 9. Miami Dolphins, 8. Cincinnati Bengals, 7. Jacksonville Jaguars, 6. Green Bay Packers, 5. New York Jets.

In our 12th article in the series, we enter the Lions Den for a peek at what changes to expect for a franchise that’s hungry for success.

Which Detroit Lions should fantasy football owners pounce on during drafts?

4. Detroit Lions

New Offensive Coordinator: Darrell Bevell

Matt Patricia’s first season as head coach of the Detroit Lions was one to forget. His team was the division’s doormat, and his offense finished in the league’s bottom third in both yards gained and points scored. The defense ranked in the top 10 in yards allowed but didn’t create many opportunities for the offense, settling for second to last in the league in takeaways.

As a result, the Detroit Lions removed the All-Name Team’s Jim Bob Cooter of his offensive coordinator duties during the offseason. Former Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell replaced him as the leader of the Lions’ attack.

Bevell’s teams ranked in the NFL’s top three in rushing attempts during four of his first five years as Seattle’s offensive coordinator (2011-15). Granted, Russell Wilson ran more often than Lions quarterback Matt Stafford ever will but whether Bevell had Marshawn Lynch or Thomas Rawls in his backfield, a commitment to the run was obvious.

The only real deviation from a ground-centered approach came when Lynch “retired,” and a committee of underwhelming running backs remained. Kerryon Johnson would’ve been the best running back in this year’s draft class had he not declared a year early, so it’s fair to expect the former Auburn Tiger to receive the lion’s share of touches in Bevell’s backfield this year.

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Bear this in mind, and ponder what the release of Theo Riddick did for Johnson’s fantasy stock. In an era where bell-cow backs are quickly becoming an endangered species, this Lion could very well finish the season as the King of the Jungle among NFC North running backs, perhaps even ahead of Dalvin Cook.

That secret is out, so those trolling for Johnson in drafts will now need to take him by the end of the second round. Johnson’s current ADP in 12-team PPR leagues is now all the way up to 2.11; few players have seen their fantasy stocks rise like Johnson’s this summer.

On the flip side of this exuberance, Johnson’s rapid ascent seems to overlook C.J. Anderson‘s presence as a potential goal-line back and touchdown vulture, not to mention Matt Patricia’s roots in a New England Patriots franchise that famously set the cutting edge for running back rotations. Yet, it’s still hard to imagine a realistic range of outcomes in which Johnson doesn’t finish as a starting-caliber running back in 12-team PPR leagues.

Aside from a strong ground game, another trademark of Bevell offenses is frequent tight end usage, especially in the red zone. Here are a few relevant notes from Bevell’s tenure in Seattle:

• In both 2012 and 2013, TE Zach Miller finished third in targets on a team featuring Lynch, Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate. Miller tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns in the latter season.
• During the 2014 campaign, no wide receiver on the team caught as many touchdowns as tight end Luke Willson; backup tight ends Cooper Helfet and Tony Moaki combined to haul in as many touchdowns as any wideout on the team that year.
• In 2015, only Baldwin saw more targets than newly-acquired tight end Jimmy Graham, who missed five games that season.
• In 2016, Graham racked up 923 yards and a half-dozen touchdowns on 95 touches, second on the team.
• Graham’s receiving yard total took a nosedive in 2017 under Bevell, but he still saw 96 touches and scored ten touchdowns, tops among all NFL tight ends, and tied for second in the NFL behind only DeAndre Hopkins.

The Lions selected tight end T.J. Hockenson eighth overall in this year’s NFL Draft and the Lions official team website reported last week that Hockenson was a “fixture” on the first-team offense. Anyone who’s ever played connect-the-dots on the back of a chain restaurant’s children’s menu can see the upside here.

Hockensen is being drafted as the TE12 (ADP 11.08) in 12-team PPR leagues. Rookie tight ends rarely produce in fantasy football, but the talent and opportunity combination here is hard to pass up, especially at that point in drafts.

Need further convincing? Check out this Tweet from Dwain McFarland, analyst for Footballguys.com and Matt Waldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio:

While experts are starting to flock like moths to a porchlight in their efforts to hype up the rookie tight end from Iowa, not everyone is gathering around the idea that the Lions will run early and often. Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports points out that Cooter lost his job in large part to an unimaginative, run-heavy offense. La Canfora expects the Lions to continue to run more than some think they will, but hints at a bit more balance, especially on early downs:

"“I left this training camp having taken the pulse of enough people in charge to anticipate a more robust passing attack on first down, more effort being made to get pass catchers established early in games and running more of the offense through quarterback Matthew Stafford with Darrell Bevell now his coordinator.”"

This would boost the fantasy football prospects of quarterback Matthew Stafford, who is currently going off the board in Round 14 as the QB25 in 12-team leagues. He is already a value in 2-QB or Superflex leagues as a late eighth-rounder, where he’s being taken as a spot-starter or QB2 after Derek Carr, and just ahead of Sam Darnold and Nick Foles.

Stafford offers ridiculous upside to “Zero QB” strategists who wait until the late rounds to draft a quarterback in 1-QB leagues. The first overall pick of the 2009 NFL Draft has averaged over 300 yards passing per game in his career and has quietly produced QB1 numbers (top 12 or better) in six of the eight full seasons he’s played. He finished in the top 10 in three of his last four.

The Lions have 135 million reasons to run their offense through a quarterback with this kind of track record, so if Stafford returns to the top 12 this season, few fantasy football experts should be taken by surprise.  What many won’t expect is the byproduct of a more efficient offense run through him: fantasy points for wide receivers, and tons of them.

Budding 6-4 superstar wide receiver Kenny Golladay was targeted 119 times last season. Assuming a slight increase in targets to account for the targets vacated by Golden Tate, and a modest improvement in his catch rate as a third-year receiver, expect a stat line in the neighborhood of 80 receptions, 1,207 yards and eight touchdowns.

This fairly conservative projection still falls short of Golladay’s  stratospheric upside, and more than qualifies him as an every-week starter. He represents a bargain at his current ADP of 4.10 as the WR19 in PPR leagues.

The always-steady, occasionally spectacular Marvin Jones roams the other side of the line of scrimmage.  Jones, who missed several games last season due to a knee injury, drew over 100 targets in each of his two full seasons with the Lions. Given his potential as a high-volume number two receiver, Jones offers a solid value proposition in the late eighth round or later.

Another veteran Lions wide receiver isn’t being posted on many draft boards at all: sure-handed slot receiver Danny Amendola, who should attract a fair volume of targets himself. Largely undrafted in 12 team leagues, the newly-signed Amendola deserves to be on waiver wire watch lists, and he’s worth a dart throw as a bench stash in larger PPR leagues.

Bevell’s addition to the staff should jump-start a Motor City offense that had a hard time getting out of the garage at times last season. Expect improved seasons from Stafford and Johnson, while Golladay, Jones, and Hockenson meet or exceed expectations in fantasy football this season.