Fantasy Football 2019: Impact of Minnesota Vikings coaching changes

The Minnesota Vikings shook up their offensive coaching staff after a disappointingly mediocre season. What can fantasy football owners expect from Kevin Stefanski and Gary Kubiak in 2019?

NFL offenses go to great lengths to avoid turnovers. Yet, the turnover rate among the league’s offensive coordinators has been staggering: 17 teams changed their offensive coordinators this offseason. We’re nearing the finish line in a fantasy football odyssey around the league. So far, we’ve visited the following franchises:

15. Cleveland Browns, 14. Washington Redskins, 13. Baltimore Ravens, 12. Denver Broncos, 11. Tennessee Titans, 10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 9. Miami Dolphins, 8. Cincinnati Bengals, 7. Jacksonville Jaguars, 6. Green Bay Packers, 5. New York Jets, 4. Detroit Lions

Coming in at the third spot and the 13th team we’ve discussed in the series, we embark on a journey with the Minnesota Vikings.

Which players offer incremental fantasy football value on the heels of the team’s offensive coaching changes?

3. Minnesota Vikings

New Assistant Head Coach: Gary Kubiak; New Offensive Coordinator: Kevin Stefanski

Kevin Stefanski rises to the rank of offensive coordinator in Year 14 as a member of the Minnesota Vikings’ coaching staff, one year removed from a magical NFC Conference Championship run as Case Keenum‘s quarterbacks coach. Stefanski will likely call plays this year, as he did during the final three games of last season.

The sample size is small, but running back Dalvin Cook represents a larger part of Stefanski’s game plan: Cook averaged 18.33 touches per game under Stefanski, compared to just 14.75 in eight games prior to the switch. Cook was one of many Vikings players who gave Stefanski glowing reviews in an article by Craig Peters and the Vikings.com staff:

"“Coach came to me. He’s hands on, so he came to me and said, ‘We’re going to get you the ball. Make a play.’ When your coach looks at you and tells you that, you’re going to go out and give 110 percent and run through a wall or something. He’ll come to certain guys and say, ‘We’re going to come to you this drive, so make a play.’ I love that and love our coaches getting me the ball and getting me the touches.’"

Despite high praise from the players, make no mistake: the hiring of Gary Kubiak as assistant head coach is really what moves the needle for fantasy football owners. In Kubiak’s 22 seasons as a head coach or offensive coordinator, his teams finished in the top 10 in yards 17 times.

Kubiak’s offenses have finished top five or better a remarkable 11 times and top three or better on nine occasions. His teams finished as the league’s biggest yardage monster in four different seasons. In 2016, his last year as a coordinator, the Denver Broncos finished in the top 10 in points, but not yards, with since-disposed Trevor Siemian at the helm as an unheralded rookie quarterback.

Some believe the Vikings’ current quarterback Kirk Cousins is overrated, overpaid, and the cause of the Vikings’ decline after one-hit-wonder Keenum’s glorious season. Skip Bayless called Cousins “the most overpaid quarterback in the entire NFL.” Prior to that, USA Today likewise criticized Cousins, who didn’t dispel his detractors in 2018.

Presented for contrarian consideration is the list of quarterbacks who started at least five games during at least one of the successful Kubiak successful seasons referenced above: John Elway in his age 35-38 seasons, Brian Griese, Gus Frerotte, Jake Plummer, Matt Schaub, Sage Rosenfels, Joe Flacco, Brock Osweiler, a 39-year old version of Peyton Manning, and Siemian.

Furthermore, Bubby Brister started a quarter of Broncos’ games during one of those first place finishes. At every stop through tenures with Denver, the Houston Texans, and the Baltimore Ravens, Kubiak established a proven track record of morphing underperforming offenses into production machines.

Some may recall Cousins finishing as a Top Ten fantasy quarterback in three of his four seasons as an NFL starter. Last year’s finish of QB13 was his worst and serves as his floor.

Given how well Cousins performed for the Washington Redskins despite inferior surrounding talent, it’s hard to exclude him from the top tier of quarterbacks Kubiak will have worked with, including Manning and Elway, given their ages. It’s likewise questionable to insist that Cousins doesn’t offer ridiculous value in all fantasy football leagues as the QB20 in both standard and PPR leagues, according to Fantasy Football Calculator.

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Under Stefanski and Kubiak, Cousins’ ceiling is astronomically high, especially with weapons like Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Dalvin Cook at his disposal. Selecting Cousins in Round 7 of a 2-QB league － or even better, Round 12 or 13 of 1-QB leagues － is the kind of stuff that creates fantasy football championships.

With Cook’s effusive compliments about Stefanski in mind, it’s important to point out, as Warren Ludford did for the Daily Norseman, that Kubiak offenses have yielded significant fantasy production from unheralded running backs such as Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary, Steve Slaton and Justin Forsett. Kubiak also helped make fantasy football superstars out of sixth-round pick Terrell Davis and undrafted free agent Arian Foster.

It’s well within the realm of possibilities for Cook to put up video game numbers this season, and fantasy owners have received the memo. Cook is currently going off the board in the second round in most formats.

Rookie backup Alexander Mattison, ADP 11.11 in PPR leagues is a viable late-round handcuff for those who own shares of Cook. Mattison has been praised by head coach Mike Zimmer, but according to Dane Mizutani of the Twin Cities Pioneer Press:

"“Zimmer emphasized that Mattison needs to work on his ability in pass protection if he wants to be a key contributor in the offense. That’s always the toughest part about the transitioning to the next level, according to Zimmer, as it takes some time to get used to the speed of the game.”"

Cook will absolutely be featured in the passing game, but Thielen and Diggs will remain its primary weapons. The two complement each other well on the field, and both are solid choices in the 3rd round of 12 team redraft leagues.

Thelien is a master route-runner blessed with sub-4.5 speed and the fleet-footed Diggs is perhaps the league’s best at creating separation. The latter has posted two straight seasons with a 64.0 percent contested catch rate, but Thielen gets a slight nod among drafters for being more consistent on a weekly basis: Thielen posted 14 weeks with ten or more fantasy points, compared to “only” 11 for Diggs.

The last time Minnesota had a wide receiver duo this potent was when Hall of Famers Randy Moss and Cris Carter lined up for the Vikings. In those days, a third receiver (Jake Reed) offered fantasy value; if anyone’s going to play a similar role this year, it’s the second-year receiver from Northern Illinois, Chad Beebe.

The rapid evolution of Beebe made the Vikings comfortable enough to put former first-round draft pick Laquon Treadwell on the trading block this summer, according to Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated.

Chad is the son of former Buffalo Bills wide receiver and secret Super Tecmo Bowl weapon Don Beebe, who is most famous for turning in one of the greatest hustle plays in Super Bowl history. Keep an eye on the younger Beebe as a potential bye week fill-in or flex option as a contributor for one of the most promising offenses in the league.

Last but not least is a weapon overlooked perennially in the Vikings’ passing game: tight end Kyle “Big Country” Rudolph. In the last three seasons in which Kubiak’s offenses have finished Top Ten or better, the starting tight end has averaged 81.7 targets per season, and that was with inferior talents Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham serving in that role.

No one’s really blowing the hype horn for Rudolph this summer, but the two-time Pro Bowler was targeted 80 or more times in each of his last three seasons prior to Kubiak’s arrival. Rudolph’s average stat line over that span: 68 receptions for 669 yards and six touchdowns.

Rudolph’s floor is unquestionably high; he is a solid bet to finish as a top-12 tight end, even if he sees a small downtick in targets this year. What isn’t as obvious is his potential ceiling: in one of the final three games called by Stefanski last season, Rudolph caught all nine of his targets for 122 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

While “Big Country” hasn’t seen the consistent, weekly target volume of Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Zach Ertz, or Evan Engram, his catch rate has risen in each of the past three seasons. Rudolph ranked second in the league last season in that metric among those at the position with at least 50 targets, ahead of all four of the consensus top-five tight ends listed above.

Hands like those will endear a quarterback to his tight end, something to consider since Rudolph has already finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end in four of his last five full seasons, including three of the last four. Yet, Rudolph is inexplicably the TE18 in 12-team PPR leagues, with an ADP of 13.11.

Rudolph and Cousins are walking proof of abundant late-round quarterback and tight end value in fantasy football drafts this season. Any homer putting all eggs in the Vikings’ ship could conceivably end up with Cook in Round 2, Thielen in Round 3 and Diggs in Round 4; the combination would yield a treasure trove of points, along with bye week issues.

Don’t be surprised when all three to meet or exceed draft day expectations this season, along with Cousins and Rudolph.