2025 NFL Draft: 5 teams most likely to earn the #1 pick heading into Week 14

The race for the #1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft is heating up with just five weeks left (already) in the 2024 NFL season. Frankly, the quality of play across the NFL as a whole this year has been pretty rough. There are a whopping 19 teams with a .500 record or worse, and 14 of those teams are two games below .500 or worse.

So far, 11 teams have eight or more losses already, meaning the jockeying for 2025 NFL Draft positioning is going to be constant in the month of December. Don't get too attached to any one spot in your 2025 NFL mock draft predictions, because your favorite team might drop a handful of spots on a given week.

At this stage, it seems clear that there are some teams that are worse than the rest, despite the fact that the bad teams right now are not that far apart when it comes to purely wins and losses. Which teams are in legitimate contention for the 1st overall pick with December football officially underway?

2025 NFL Draft order: Jaguars, Giants, and Raiders most likely to pick 1st overall?

Current 2025 NFL Draft Order heading into Week 14

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
2. Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)
3. New York Giants (2-10)
4. New England Patriots (3-10)
5. Carolina Panthers (3-9)
6. New York Jets (3-9)
7. Tennessee Titans (3-9)
8. Cleveland Browns (3-9)
9. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)
10. New Orleans Saints (4-8)
11. Chicago Bears (4-8)

These are all of the teams right now in the NFL with eight or more losses, and obviously with four or five games left to play for most of these squads, the separation of just two games from the top pick to the 11th pick makes things very interesting.

But based on the way these teams have played this year, I took the liberty of highlighting the teams I believe have the best chance of earning that #1 overall pick.

The Jaguars might once again be without Trevor Lawrence after the ugly hit he took against the Texans on Sunday, and they haven't been able to win with Lawrence, much less without him. But even though the Jaguars are currently ahead of the Raiders in the 2025 NFL Draft order, the New York Giants might be the most likely team to surpass them before the end of the 2025 season for that #1 pick.

We saw the Giants get absolutely smoked on Thanksgiving by Cooper Rush and the beaten up Cowboys.

The issue with two AFC South teams near the top of the order here (as well as the Colts looming outside the top-10 picks with seven losses) is the fact that those teams will play each other in the final weeks of the season. As a matter of fact, the Titans and Jaguars play this week, so perhaps the Titans are more likely to find themselves on the periphery sooner rather than later.

The Patriots are on a bye this week while the Raiders play the Bucs, the Jets play the Dolphins, and the Panthers play the Eagles. We could see a couple of teams join the 10-loss ranks this week as well as perhaps each of the Raiders, Giants, and Jaguars getting their 11th losses.