Fantasy Football: Impact of Atlanta Falcons coaching changes

The Atlanta Falcons have reunited Matt Ryan with Dirk Koetter, his former offensive coordinator. Just how high can the Falcons’ offense fly in 2019?

Since the Lombardi Trophy was raised in February, more than half of the NFL’s offensive coordinators were replaced. Therefore, we’ve challenged ourselves with the task of exploring the fantasy football impacts of these coaching changes. In an effort to provide an edge for our readers, we’ve offered birds-eye views of the following franchises:

15. Cleveland Browns, 14. Washington Redskins, 13. Baltimore Ravens, 12. Denver Broncos, 11. Tennessee Titans, 10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 9. Miami Dolphins, 8. Cincinnati Bengals, 7. Jacksonville Jaguars, 6. Green Bay Packers, 5. New York Jets, 4. Detroit Lions, 3. Minnesota Vikings.

Not many teams replace their offensive coordinator after two straight Top Ten finishes in terms of total yards. However, the Atlanta Falcons are a team that “goes as its offense goes,” and their attack clearly wasn’t as efficient under Steve Sarkisian as it was with Kyle Shanahan running the show during the 2016 Super Bowl run.

In the 14th article in our series, we swoop into the Falcons’ nest to examine why Dirk Koetter was the right choice for fantasy football owners who invest in the Falcons.

2. Atlanta Falcons

New Offensive Coordinator: Dirk Koetter

In 2016, when Kyle Shanahan led the Falcons offense to the second-best finish in terms of total yards, it was the first time the team finished in the top five in that category since 1980. When Shanahan left to serve as head coach of the San Francisco 49ers, the Falcons turned to the college ranks for Steve Sarkisian.

With the former Washington and USC head coach calling plays, the Falcons twice failed to come within 100 points of the 540 they piled up under Shanahan. Therefore, the Falcons brought back Dirk Koetter, their offensive coordinator from 2012-14, in hopes of rekindling the magic that left Atlanta with Shanahan.

During a three-year term as Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach, Koetter’s squad finished in the bottom third in the league in terms of rushing yards each season. However, his team’s aerial display was something to behold: the Bucs led the league in passing yards and coincidentally tied the Falcons for third place in passing touchdowns, despite enduring a quarterback carousel between Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Matt Ryan led the league in completion percentage under Koetter’s tutelage in 2012 and was a Pro Bowler twice in their three seasons together. Given his toothless effort to establish a ground game in Tampa Bay, Koetter’s remarks on the Falcons’ official website were rather suspect:

"“Balance is the hardest thing to defend, we will shoot to be as balanced as we can. Now, there’s things like time and score and injuries that can affect that, but we’re going to definitely shoot for that.”"

We are supposed to infer that Koetter’s goal is a greater emphasis on the ground game and fewer pass attempts for Ryan. However, those fluent in Coachspeak will keep the data above in mind, read between the lines, and just smile and nod. Let’s try not to roll our eyes, though; that would be rude.

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Excitement about the Falcons’ terrific trio of wide receivers requires no reservation, however: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu are arguably the league’s best. Add to them the departure of Tevin Coleman, question marks surrounding Devonta Freeman’s return to full health, and the ho-hum play of Ito Smith and we remind ourselves that wanting to run the ball more and actually running the ball more are two birds of different feathers.

Under Koetter, Michael Turner turned in over 900 total yards and 11 touchdowns to lead a rather respectable backfield in 2012. The following season, Koetter elected for a backfield by committee, led by the aging Steven Jackson, and the team finished dead last in rushing.

Since then,  Koetter’s backfield finished better than 24th in the league in rushing only once: in 2015, Doug Martin bounced back from two injury-plagued campaigns to become the second-leading rusher in the NFL. Falcons fans point to Martin’s All-Pro season as a sign that hope is not lost, as they expect Freeman, a former Pro Bowler, to return to similarly return to form.

Fantasy football drafters are embracing the likelihood of this possibility. The Florida State product (ADP 3.05) makes a superb RB2 or a serviceable RB1 for those taking a combination of top-shelf receivers or Travis Kelce in the first two rounds.

Fantasy football owners should temper expectations somewhat for Freeman, but in all fairness, he is far more athletic and talented than Peyton Barber. Freeman will surely run circles around Ronald Jones’ disappointing rookie season as well and no real threat to his workload exists.

Smith, the RB57 with a Round 13 ADP, is a comparatively boring option and an inadvisable dart throw. We’ve already seen what he’ll do in Freeman’s absence, and it isn’t special. Smith proved to be a capable receiver out of the backfield but was vastly outperformed on the ground by Coleman, who has since reunited with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco.

Despite the absence of Freeman for almost an entire season, Smith topped 15 touches just once, scored just four touchdowns, and compiled 50 total yards or more only three times in 16 games. His statistical splits were inferior to those of second-year running back Brian Hill, who kicked off the preseason with a terrific showing in the Hall of Fame Game.

Expect a committee between Smith and Hill if something were to happen to Freeman. Be prepared to use your FAAB dollars accordingly, when and if the time comes.

Hands-down, the top Falcons player for fantasy football owners to target is Julio Jones, a wise pick at the back-end of the first round in 12-team leagues. Too much was made about his once-famous touchdown drought, and while essays can be written on Jones’ greatness, we’ll just let this tweet from Fantasy Pros’ Bobby Sylvester do the talking:

Second-year standout Ridley is primed for a big season of his own in a Koetter offense that loves to air it out. Those doubting the ceiling of this former first-rounder due to the presence of Jones need only remember JuJu Smith-Schuster‘s emergence from the shadow of Antonio Brown.

Fantasy owners recognize his game: Ridley is going off the board in the fifth round of fantasy drafts as a consensus Top 24 WR. The Alabama product is a starting-caliber WR in any format.

Once again, Sanu is the forgotten Falcon. Routinely passed over for higher-upside players in late rounds, he has quietly blossomed ever since he began suiting up for the Falcons. Sanu’s catch rate is one indicator: he recorded a 61.0 percent mark during four years with the Cincinnati Bengals, but his percentage during his three years with the Falcons is 70.8 percent, a remarkable improvement.

Sanu, who has finished as WR32 or better over the past two years, even threw a touchdown pass in each of those two campaigns for good measure. He isn’t the sexiest late-round option but Sanu should at least meet expectations as a satisfactory bye week fill-in when the chips are down.

Another under-the-radar player to watch in this offense is 24-year old tight end Austin Hooper, who quietly put together a Pro Bowl season last year. His target volume increased in each of his three seasons (27, 65, 88), but more impressive is the consistent uptick in his catch rate (70.4, 75.4 and 80.7 percent).

No tight ends targeted 50 or more times outperformed Hooper in that metric. He is an every-week starter at tight end and a great value at his current ADP: 10.04 in PPR and a shockingly low 12.01 in 0.5 PPR, according to Fantasy Football Calculator.

Meanwhile, as the engine of the offense, Ryan has thrown over 600 passes in five of his last seven seasons; he will soon make it six of the last eight. He has notched 35 or more touchdown passes in two of his last three seasons, and he’s a solid bet to repeat that feat, given the arsenal at his disposal. Ryan is a third-round pick in 2 QB leagues (3.07), and is going off the board in Round 7 of more traditional 12 team leagues.

Ryan is a sure bet to generate Top 5-10 numbers, but given the depth at the quarterback position, it is best to opt for value at other positions in those draft spots and hope Ryan slips to the point where he returns more equity. In any scenario, there is only one concern for fantasy owners who do end up drafting Ryan: the continuity of his offensive line.

Unlike the start of last season, the line doesn’t return intact. Stud left tackle Jake Matthews and rock-solid center Alex Mack return from last year’s Week 1 lineup, but that’s it. Whether or not the Falcons are able to get the most out of Koetter’s scheme rests on the shoulders of the offensive line and its position coach, Chris Morgan.

Morgan’s patchwork unit allowed 42 sacks last season, more than Ryan endured in all but one other season in his career. The Falcons have full confidence in Morgan’s ability to turn things around. As D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports:

"“Morgan was named the offensive line coach of the year by analytics site, profootballfocus.com in 2016 after his first season with the Falcons. [He] is an understudy of respected offensive line guru Tom Cable. The Falcons’ line was ranked 26th in 2014 and made the leap up to the fourth spot under Morgan, according to profootballfocus.com.”"

Early returns on the effort to retool the offensive line are concerning, but it is way too soon to press the panic button. In fairness, according to Will McFadden of AtlantaFalcons.com, newly acquired starting left guard James Carpenter 一 who won a Super Bowl ring as a starter for the Seattle Seahawks before toiling for the New York Jets 一 was among those held out of action in the Week 2 preseason contest.

If the Falcons can keep Ryan upright, he should continue to pick apart opposing defenses as efficiently as ever. Assuming even a mild improvement up front, fantasy football fanatics should expect a similar pass/run ratio to last year (63.8 percent third highest in the NFL) along with a slight uptick in offensive efficiency.

Ryan, Freeman, Jones, Hooper and Ridley will be weekly starters in almost any fantasy football format, and Sanu is still a solid flex option in certain weeks. The floor of the Falcons’ offense is his high, but its ceiling as a Top Three top offense is what should intrigue fantasy football owners.