Fantasy Football: Impact of Arizona Cardinals coaching changes

New Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury brings his Air Raid offense to the desert. Fantasy football fanatics are divided: can Kingsbury and rookie quarterback Kyler Murray give flight to one of the league’s worst offenses?

Many fantasy football owners are content to do zero research and simply bring a magazine printed in May to their drafts, supplemented with a “cheatsheet” from an online sports conglomerate. That’s fine, but as any teacher can attest, students who do their research almost always produce the best results.

Fantasy football owners who study offensive coaching changes give themselves an advantage in drafts, so we’re sharing our notes as Draft Day approaches. So far, we’ve summarized the fantasy football outlooks of 14 franchises with new offensive coordinators:

15. Cleveland Browns, 14. Washington Redskins, 13. Baltimore Ravens, 12. Denver Broncos, 11. Tennessee Titans, 10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 9. Miami Dolphins, 8. Cincinnati Bengals, 7. Jacksonville Jaguars, 6. Green Bay Packers, 5. New York Jets, 4. Detroit Lions, 3. Minnesota Vikings, 2. Atlanta Falcons

In our 15th and final article in the series, we arrive in Arizona, where new head coach Kliff Kingsbury will be calling plays for a radical, fast-paced “Air Raid” offense.

Can the NFL take the heat that the new Cardinals offense intends to unleash? What will be the fantasy football fallout?

1. Arizona Cardinals

New Head Coach: Kliff Kingsbury

Tremendous hype has been building all summer behind Kliff Kingsbury and rookie quarterback Kyler Murray, the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. They intend to put the widely accepted cliché of the NFL as a “copycat league” on notice.

The former Texas Tech head coach is implementing a fast-paced offense that aims to dramatically increase the volume of plays run. The entire Cardinals offense is under Kingsbury’s charge; instead of bringing in an offensive coordinator, he tapped Tom Clements to serve as his “Passing Game Coordinator” and quarterbacks coach.

The efficiency of any system directed by a rookie quarterback presents plenty of uncertainties, but things won’t be worse than last year, when the Cardinals fielded one of the NFL’s statistically worst offenses in years. For this reason alone, the Cardinals claim the top spot in our rankings of teams most impacted by an offensive coaching change from a fantasy football perspective.

We’ll determine whether or not to bring sky-high expectations back down to earth, beginning with a starting point that is somehow below rock-bottom. Let’s start with a few facts about last year’s futility:

• The 2018 Cardinals scored only14.1 points scored per game, lowest in the league. Three teams — the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, and New Orleans Saints — scored more than twice as often.
• The Cardinals ranked 32nd (last) in passing yards.
• The team finished dead last in net yards per attempt by a wide margin.
• The Cardinals also sank to the bottom in rushing yards.
• Despite David Johnson‘s presence for all 16 games, the team was the league’s worst in terms of rushing yards per attempt.
• Not only did the Cardinals finish last in third-down conversions (29.1 percent), they were the league’s worse in fourth-down conversions (37.5 percent), for good measure.

The list could go on, but why dwell in the past when optimism has arrived on the shoulders of Murray? Kingsbury’s quick-hitting, fast-paced style should relieve some pressure from both Murray and a beleaguered offensive line, a prime reason why we expect the Cardinals to enjoy the largest delta for any NFL offense undergoing a coaching change.

However, we keep our heads out of the clouds and refrain from penning rags-to-riches fairy tales featuring gaudy projections, at least in 2019, as even high-ranking members of the Cardinals’ front office aren’t pleased with the status quo.

According to Kevin Zimmerman of 98.7 FM’s ArizonaSports.com, Cardinals general manager Steve Keim offered public criticism of his team after an ugly loss to the Oakland Raiders:

"“There are a number of players that maybe in my mind have gotten too comfortable or think they’re going to make this team, maybe aren’t playing with the level of urgency that I would like to see,” Keim said, reminding [players] that the Cardinals are first in the waiver-wire priority order."

Kingsbury and Murray truthers will dismiss that challenge as senseless preseason noise, then emphasize the fantasy football value created by the incremental volume of plays run. The Cardinals finished second to last in that statistic, but here’s an inconvenient fact: the offense also finished in the top five in Drives Attempted, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.

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Bearing in mind the Cardinals’ struggles on third and fourth down last season, it’s also important to note a top five finish in terms of the highest percentage of drives ending in turnovers. However, given our assessment of the change that Kingsbury and Murray will bring, we attempt to offer a more positive outlook for 2019.

For starters, red zone efficiency was a strong point of this offense, ranking ninth in the league in that metric. However, this was also the league’s smallest sample size, as the Cardinals’ 28 red zone attempts ranked — you guessed it — dead last. The Cardinals managed only about half as many trips inside the 20-yard line as the average NFL team (median: 50).

Many point to 2013 for a historical perspective, when Chip Kelly stepped on the sidelines as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles. That was the last time we saw a fast-paced college offense enter the league, but it’s worth noting that Kelly didn’t have a rookie quarterback, and his offensive line was better than the unit bequeathed to Kingsbury.

These are but a few of the many differences aggressively alluded to by Evan Silva, former Rotoworld analyst and founder of Establish The Run:

We genuflect, then run through the numbers to see for ourselves.

Kelly inherited an Eagles team that ran 1,110 plays in 2012, sixth-most in the league; the Eagles ranked 21st in terms of drives attempted during that season. Surprisingly, the Eagles actually ran 28 fewer plays during Kelly’s first year in charge, finishing fifth in the league.

In the first year under Kelly, the Eagles’ third-down conversion rate showed only a modest 1.6 percent improvement. The Eagles did improve their red zone efficiency from 44 percent (28th in the league) to 52.6 percent (18th) in 2013, but the largest impact Kelly made was the massive change in terms of drives attempted.

Kingsbury’s challenge, as far as fantasy football owners are concerned, is to simply do more with a similar volume of drive opportunities. Given the floor he inherited in terms of this metric, he won’t be able to create as big of a margin as Kelly did.

Unlike Kelly, Kingsbury is better positioned to improve third-down efficiency, which will yield a significant volume of additional plays all by itself. Piggybacking on that notion, the very nature of quick-hitting, high-percentage plays in Kingsbury’s offense should likewise improve the Cardinals’ performance on first and second downs.

While the early preseason returns aren’t promising for Murray, his running ability alone should boost the third-down efficiency rate, as he extends plays that break down behind what was the worst offensive line in football last year, according to Pro Football Focus.

The Cardinals are the trickiest team in the league to generate projections for, as no team stares down a wider range of realistic outcomes. Assuming a conservative five percent increase in plays run, the Cardinals would rise only to 30th place in the league, per last year’s league figures. Given a more realistic 10 percent increase in plays run, the Cardinals would have finished 26th in the league last year.

However, if a very attainable 15 percent increase is realized, the team can expect a 10th place finish, given inexperience at quarterback and a subpar offensive line. It is difficult for many to envision a radical 25 percent increase, but in a best-case scenario that sees Murray impact the kind of change we think is achievable, the Cardinals would rate second in the league in terms of plays run.

An undeniable fact in the Cardinals favor: the Baltimore Ravens actually led the league in the number of plays run last season and, while they were hardly an offensive juggernaut, they finished ninth in the league in total yards with a rookie quarterback at the helm for nearly half of the season. This recent precedent lends credence to those touting Kingsbury, who is drawing up his own blueprints to achieve a similar result.

The bottom line here for fantasy football owners starts with the quarterback position. Unlike most rookie signal-callers in past seasons, Murray is not only draftable in all leagues, he’ll occasionally be worth starting.

Baker Mayfield personifies the rationale for ignoring traditional, overly conservative calls to cross rookie quarterbacks off of redraft lists. I’m not as high on Murray as I was on Mayfield after the 2018 NFL Draft, but unlike the Cleveland Browns quarterback, this year’s first overall pick will start Week 1 and should easily surpass 500 yards rushing.

Murray’s legs offer a high floor, but he’ll also throw for enough yards and touchdowns to make him a DFS darling during several weeks this season. In redraft leagues, this makes the former Texas Tech and Oklahoma product a solid, mid-round risk-versus-reward proposition.

Just be mindful that many are focusing exclusively on the high-end of Murray’s potential outcome ranges, denying the very existence of his floor. I have Murray rated as my redraft QB15 for his rookie campaign, so I won’t be taking him anywhere near his ADP of 8.05 in PPR leagues, where he’s going off the board as the QB9. Murray is more advisable at his mid-fifth round ADP as the QB12 in Superflex and 2-QB leagues.

Those who likewise believe Murray will realize his tremendous upside this season, despite a porous offensive line, will need to pay an unpalatable premium to secure his services; odds are someone in your league drank the Cardinal Red Kool-Aid. Some rank the reigning Heisman Trophy winner as high as QB5 overall, including the sage and usually sane Brad Evans of Yahoo Sports:

The wide receiver position is a strength for this team, but volume and target share projections are a crapshoot, given the radical range of reasonable outcomes. Future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald, one of the NFL’s most recognizable and respected figures, should remain fantasy-relevant for another season. He is being taken near the turn at Rounds 7 and 8 in 12-team PPR leagues.

Christian Kirk is a favorite among industry analysts for a breakout campaign. The former second-round pick out of Texas A&M started only seven of the 16 games he suited up for last year but managed to catch 43 passes, three for touchdowns, while accruing 625 yards from scrimmage.

Kirk is justifiably going in the late sixth round of most PPR leagues. He enters the season as a solid bet to finish as the number two option in a potentially high-volume passing game, and offers a high-enough floor to justify his ADP; his ceiling makes him a seductive mid-round draft siren.

Andy Isabella, a diminutive 5-9 speedster snatched up in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft, put his speed and concentration skill on display with this touchdown strike during the second preseason game against the Raiders. The University of Massachusetts product has drawn rave reviews from many in the fantasy football industry, including the folks at Pro Football Focus:

Fresno State’s KeeSean Johnson is another rookie who has turned heads with route-running skills this preseason, as reported by Jake Anderson of ArizonaSports.com. Johnson is a lock to make the roster according to most, and many are expecting him to see more playing time than a larger looming prospect, fourth-round draft pick Hakeem Butler.

Butler, a 6-5 beast from Iowa State with 4.48 speed, surprised many pundits by slipping into the fourth round of the 2019 NFL Draft. All three rookie receivers bear watching as late-round bench stashes in larger redraft leagues, as dynasty owners already have them on their radars.

However, the best bet as the biggest beneficiary from the Cardinals coaching changes would be  Johnson, a true “bell cow” running back who is rightfully going in the middle of the first round of most fantasy drafts right now. In his first year back from a major injury, the former First-Team All-Pro amassed almost 1,400 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns, a remarkable feat on an offense as toothless as last year’s Cardinals unit.

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Johnson was targeted only 76 times last season, a significant decrease from the 120 passes thrown his way during a remarkable 2016 campaign. If we realistically split the difference between last year’s mildly disappointing finish as the RB10 and his 2016 season as the RB1, Johnson’s mean is 1,712 total yards and 15 touchdowns, making him a slam dunk top-five overall pick in just about any draft, with RB1 upside.

A late-round handcuff, and no judgment if you’re into that sort of thing, is found in the form of Fordham product Chase Edmonds, who caught 87 percent of the passes chucked at him last season. Largely undrafted in 12 team formats, Edmonds is worth stashing in larger leagues as a “break glass in case of emergency to Johnson” option.

While the tight end position would normally be a sneaky fantasy option on a high-volume offense run by a rookie who’ll undoubtedly check down more than a seasoned vet would, Kingsbury’s offensive scheme often takes the tight end off the gridiron entirely.

It remains to be seen if that tact will change with a below-average offensive line protecting a rookie quarterback. Even if it does, both Charles Clay and Ricky Seals-Jones will block more than fantasy owners would like when on the field. Avoid rostering either in all but the deepest of leagues.

The Cardinals should produce game scripts that will maximize the fantasy football outlook of a team that should finish in the top 10 in terms of plays run this season. The potential for a higher ceiling is a distinct possibility.

As difficult as it is to picture the Cardinals in the playoffs this season, it’s even harder to envision a scenario in which the team doesn’t produce a number of players that fantasy football owners will clamor to acquire. Just be careful to bear in mind their full ranges of potential outcomes and resist the urge to reach for them.